John Danforth, Talent Scout Extraordinaire

Missourians (or is it Mizzou-rahns?) are seeing a wave of ads paid for by Missouri United, a PAC controlled by John Danforth. The initial ads only mention the urgent need for voters to "send a message" by sending an independent Senator to Congress to combat the harsh partisan politics that have so sullied public discourse in Missouri and the nation.

Uh huh.

Let's go back and review a little history since many voters may not know the full history involved.

The Danforth family founded Ralston-Purina so John Danforth and his brother William were born into wealth and to some extent, are the Missouri Repupublican equivalent of the Kennedy clan in Massachusetts Democratic politics -- having the time and the financial means to pursue high-prestige but relatively low-paying positions in politics and academia to try to "give something back" to the greater community. At some level, John Danforth had a rather bland elected career in terms of legislation or key policy positions and votes. Like many country club Republicans, his overall record hinted at concerns about far-right religious extremism but his actual votes mostly hewed the party line as it moved hard right.

Danforth's true legacy is more in the talent realm. From his time as Missouri Attorney General in the early 1970s through his tenure as US Senator from Missouri and up to the recent past, Danforth's track record of people-picking is, most charitably speaking, a mixed bag -- if you can call a mixture of one part milquetoast, one part religious prude and two parts dioxin a mixed bag. Danforth gave a political leg up to three key attorneys on his staff as Missouri Attorney General.

Kit Bond left the state Attorney General office and went on in the mid-1970s to become a completely forgettable Missouri Governor then later an even more forgettable United States Senator with literally no major legislative accomplishments to his name.

John Ashcroft, who succeeded Danforth as Missouri Attorney General in 1976 then served as Governor of Missouri for two terms, then US Senator for one term then served as US Attorney General under GW Bush. Ashcroft's resume highlight (in all seriousness) was his refusal to sign documents providing legal justification to re-certify domestic surveillance programs pushed by the Bush Administration and further resistance that eventually convinced Bush to drop the renewal effort entirely. However, whatever moral brownie points would have been scored from that show of courage were surrendered back to the pool by his decision to provide written justification re-authorizing the use of torture. Oh, and after leaving public life and starting up a lobbying firm specializing in support of firms offering data mining capabilities, Ashcroft took a position on the board of a firm called Academi, a name which absolutely no one has heard of... For good reason, because the firm's prior name was Blackwater, the firm that made billions and was charged with crimes ranging from arms trafficking to mass murder as it handled much of the outsourcing of the Iraq war.

The third musketeer of Danforth's 1970s staff? Clarence Thomas. Danforth sponsored Thomas' nomination to the Supreme Court in the first Bush Adminstration. The rest, they say, is history. At this point, the Thomas brand of jurisprudence - equal parts embittered, get-off-my-lawn cynicism and consistent sabatour of anything involving individual rights with a dash of Federalist Society "just make up whatever justification you want" nuttery -- should require no recap. Just look at Supreme Court rulings in the current term on gun laws being gutted in New York State, due process protections and the Cobb decision completely eliminating abortion rights and Thomas' direct commentary on other current rights (contraception, gay marriage, gay sex) meriting elimination on the same distorted grounds.

If a bit more reading on the jurisprudence of Clarence Thomas is of interest, these prior commentaries may prove useful:

BOOK REVIEW: The Enigma of Clarence Thomas

Clarence Thomas v. America

The Supreme Court Just Screwed Generations

But Danforth didn't stop in the 1990s with Clarence Thomas. Danforth was instrumental in backing current Missouri Republican US Senator Josh Hawley. The same Josh Hawley who flashed a thumbs up to gathering rioters at the US Capital on January 6, 2021 then, AFTER the riot, voted for the bogus motions to question the votes from multiple states in a bid to install Trump as President pro-coup-coup. Since then, Danforth has publicly expressed disgust at Hawley's actions and public positions.

What Danforth has NOT done is publicly acknowledge the real problem posed by the takeover of the Republican Party by anti-democratic, anti-individual, pro-business, extremist evangelicals. A lifetime of expressing support for middle-of-the-road "country club Republican" platitudes like "growing the economy," "strong military" and "tough on crime" doesn't alter the fact that he voted for all of the extreme positions that dragged the country away from the center he now professes needs restoration or that he boosted two of the most dangerous intellectual frauds on the field today into power.

And who exactly is the Danforth PAC pushing for the role of "independent voice" of Missouri? The initial PAC ad make no mention of any candidate but in reality, the candidate being pushed is John Wood. In light of current Congressional investigations into the events of January 6, 2021, the idea of John Wood winning a Senate seat as an independent from Missouri might appear palatable to a large segment of "independent" and Democratic voters in the state. John Wood has been serving as counsel to the House Committee for the January 6 insurrection. AWESOME, right? Well, Wood not only once worked on Danforth's staff but also spent part of his career clerking for...

...wait for it...

Clarence Thomas.

Wood just might be the sensible center candidate Missouri and the country need -- just like the Missouri United PAC ad says. However, the man doing the most to promote this effort has arguably one of the WORST people-picking track records in all of politics. The twenty million dollars Danforth's PAC has pledged to spend on this supposedly independent run could be more effectively spent by Danforth using it to publicly, repeately reinforce one key point:

The current Republican Party has no tether to morals, ethics or reality. I am speaking to you today to tell you that I, John Danforth, was one of the first to be duped into letting these forces of willful ignorance, bigotry and might-over-right corrupt not only the Republican Party but our country. I am asking you today not to be the last to be duped by these forces. The easiest way to undo this damage is to vote Democratic or - if you cannot bring yourself to do that -- not vote at all. At least until sanity returns to the candidates and platforms of the Republican Party, or something better that replaces it entirely.

But John Danforth cannot bring himself to do that. So why should he get another bite at the apple acting as public talent scout? He already has two picks on the field doing their part to cripple the Judicial and Legislative branches of government. Wouldn't it be wise to pursue someone outside the Danforth farm team?

WTH

The Supreme Court Just Screwed Generations

The ruling in the Dobbs case overturning Roe v. Wade has unleashed forces in the United States that will screw America (and perhaps the world) for generations to come.

The Alito ruling engages in what has become routine intellectual theatre for conservative justices. It claims the ruling wasn't based on the individual religious beliefs of the justices about life and abortion but an unbiased review of the "history" of prior law and precedents in place at the time of key founding documents inscrutably chosen by said justices as reflective of Founding Father thought. Never mind that that cultivated list of documents BY DEFINITION excludes thoughts from anyone except white males. Never mind such analayis routinely cherry picks quotes from prior court rulings for current verbal affect even when the original ruling is quoted out of context. Never mind such analysis routinely gets the historical "facts" COMPLETELY WRONG. It looks scholarly, so it's good enough to fool the public, right?

The result of the decision not only removes the right to abortion from women, but the rationale cited alters any presumptions that will be incorporated in future legal reviews of any lawsuits in the area of abortion rights. By declaring there is no language directly or indirectly protecting the right to abortion to be found in the Constitution or the mindset of the Founding Fathers, the decision raises the hurdle facing any future litigation aiming to protect abortion rights where currently in effect because such rights exist WITHOUT the backing of percieved originalist justification.

There is another fallacy in the analysis of the decision that requires much more thought on the part of Americans.

President Biden spoke at midday on June 24 in response to the ruling and told the American people that this decision cannot be undone by Executive Branch actions or even new court cases. Correct.

Biden said it can only be undone by voting in fillibuster-proof control in the Senate and matching majority in the House of officials who will support a federal law explicitly establishing abortion rights. Not correct.

If voters respond in November 2022 and vote in appropriate majorities that support abortion rights, any federal law thus passed will immediately trigger new lawsuits from anti-abortion forces triggering waves of litigation from the anti-abortion states claiming the new law is unconstintutional because it prioritizes choice over life and -- based on the Alito reasoning which is now the law of the land -- there is no presumption in the Constitution that abortion has equal standing as a "right" with "right to life." Therefore, the Supreme Court will inevitably toss out the new federal law as unconstitutional.

The only way to undo the damage from Dobbs is to pass a Constitutional Amendment defining abortion rights. And there is no way such an amendment would gain passage from three fourths of the states in America.

The Dobbs decision has released a tanker ship of poison into an already-toxic political climate in America. While pro-choice forces attempt to vote in new politicians to re-instate abortion access, the "winners" supporting Dobbs have already shown they will not be content with their win. Many states have already introduced additional legislation imposing criminal penalties on those who might leave a "no-state" to obtain an abortion elsewhere, imposing criminal penalties on shipments of abortion drugs into their "no-state", etc. Clarence Thomas stated in his own supporting opinion that the same "logic" used to toss Roe should be applied to contraception, same-sex marriage and even gay sex.

The only way to overcome this hurdle would be for a heavily pro-choice Congress and pro-choice President to agree to expand the Supreme Court and swamp the current six originalist extremist justices with more rational minds and votes.

And for the exact same reasons, the same thing is true for the prospects of obtaining meaningful gun reforms.

The true impact of the Dobbs ruling is ultimately unknowable but it will be STAGGERING in its damage to not only the United States and its citizens but the WORLD. Sixty six percent of Americans want abortion rights preserved but are living within political constructs that are providing a minority the power to block the majority and actually reverse crucial rights. The United States already had a full plate of issues regarding energy, economic inequities and yes WARS involving major economic and energy powers. Those issues REQUIRE attention over the next 10-30 years to avoid political and environmental CALAMITIES that could last CENTURIES. The Supreme Court's ruling just took 659,000,000 eyeballs off those serious issues with consequences lasting for centuries and distracted them with a new serious issue that should have been settled law. The logic cited for the decision further clarified to the world that American justice will be driven primarily on principals of power rather than precedent and individual rights, turning America into the world's wealthiest loose cannon.

The future is definitely not bright in America as of June 24, 2022.

WTH

Old / New Sayings in Economics

There's an old saying in economics that everyone has heard...

A recession is when someone else loses their job. A depression is when you lose your job.

We need a new saying as well...

Equity is when you finally get a pay increase you've deserved for years. Inflation is when everyone else gets a pay raise they've deserved for years.

Americans really are schizophrenic.

Pandemic shutdowns produced a much wider defintion of essential workers. If everyone is going to stay home for four weeks (remember when we thought it would only take a month or so to knock out the virus? Sigh...), exactly HOW did everyone expect to continue to get groceries? Ahhhh, we need stockers and clerks to still show up to work. How did everyone expect to keep goods flowing INTO the stores? Ahhhh, I guess we still need the merchant marine, the longshoreman, the warehouse worker and the trucker to keep showing up for work as well. How did we expect to obtain treatment for normal heart attacks, broken bones, cancer and COVID? Ahhhh, I guess the doctors and nurses better keep showing up to work. And when some sense of normalcy did resume, who were the people who had to put up with the obnoxious behavior of the average idiot 'Murican prior to vaccines being avaialble? Waiters, sales clerks, teachers...?

What about the marketing team at Kraft who just this week decided to launch a bold new brand for one of their foundational products... by re-branding Kraft Macaroni & Cheese to (wait for it...) Kraft Mac & Cheese? Those people could have taken the next 3 years off. The quintessential non-essential jobs. Those might be the quintessential non-essential jobs even without mass pandemics.

Today for what seems like at least the TENTH time in 2022, I received a robo call from my trash hauler. "We apologize for the delay in service today. We are experiencing a shortage of drivers. We intend to run the route as soon as possible so please leave all items out at the curb. Please know we are hard at work to hire drivers so service will be resumed as scheduled. We appreciate your business and patience during this time. Thank you!"

I find these calls interesting not because they have continued unabated for months now but because of what they reflect about the market forces at work and how businesses seem to be ignoring the signals present in the labor market. The fact that my trash hauler is losing drivers really isn't my problem. My trash hauler has a contract with my city to pick up the trash for X number of years. Period. If market forces have changed and they are having trouble retaining drivers, the trash hauler firm needs to raise wages until employees stop churning out. They have a CONTRACT to fulfill. If they need to raise rates at the next contract, so be it. If it now takes $19.00/hour to incent someone to drive around picking up stinky trash, then pay it and make it happen.

The arrival of COVID didn't qualify as a black swan event. Governments around the world had reviewed the impact of prior outbreaks of SARS, MERS, Ebola, etc. over the past 20 years and concluded a virus could trigger mass death and many formulated plans on how to identify such outbreaks, contain them in the short term as much as possible and work for treatments and vaccines. In hindsight, the biggest shock related to COVID was the FAILURE of most governments to follow the playbooks they had previously established and the resulting imposition of immense economic and social costs with a VERY inequitable distribution across the population -- with most of the costs being imposed on those at the bottom of the socioeconomic ladder. The black swan in all of this -- if there is one -- is the reaction of people upon whom the brunt of these costs were shifted. For MILLIONS, their "black swan" reaction was -- and continues to be -- two words. (I'll leave it to the reader to ascertain what those two words are.)

The US has a $23 trillion dollar economy and a grossly inequitable distribution of income and wealth to not even the "one percent" but the "half percent." The uber-wealthy are obviously not the essential workers in any economy or society. They are merely the invevitable result of a system with legal systems and tax codes rigged to distribute money upwards rather than outwards. In such a system, when events trigger a huge proprotion of truly essential workers to weigh the risks and rewards of essential jobs and flee them in droves, there are limited choices to correct the dynamics in labor markets for jobs facing mass abandonment.

1. redistribute wage dollars in the economy into wages for jobs experiencing churn / abandonment
2. reallocate costs within supply chains for goods and services
3. develop technologies to replace human labor with technology, eliminating the JOB involved

In 'Murica, we have brainwashed the population into worshiping the wealthy and never taking anything back from them and they certainly won't volunteer doing so on their own so #1 is out (for now). There are many cases where approach #3 is being pursued, ranging from robots in hotels and fast food eliminating hospitality and cooks. In the absence of signficant progress in #1 or #3, most of the corrective forces are being experienced via door #2. There are unique factors at work in energy that are a key contributor to inflation right now, namely:

• zero investment in domestic refining capacity since the 1970s
• incremental shutdowns of capacity during the "negative oil" crises in 2020 that have not been turned back up
• disruptions in supply and shipping due to the war in Ukraine
• climate change mitigation efforts to reduce fossil fuel use that have cemented energy firms' decision to NOT invest in short term capacity

However, the balance of the skyrocketing inflation being experienced is stemming from this post-COVID black swan reaction of workers at the lower end of the scale. These are workers whose productivity skyrocketed over the last 25 years but whose real pay in inflation adjusted dollars remained flat while the income and wealth of those at the top skyrocketed. That deal might have been sustainable when people didn't feel an existential risk to their life by showing up to work. When COVID altered that calculation, the prior deal was off.

So what are Americans really complaining about when they gripe about inflation? Do they want everyone ELSE to continue working in McJobs of all types for $9.00 to $14.00 an hour so THEY can continue to order cheap Chinese trash from Amazon and live their pre-COVID life undisturbed? The inflation at work now is painful to be sure but it is not your grandfather's inflation from the 1970s. It reflects a redistribution of wealth uisng the only means remaining given a larger political paralysis and limits to the evolution of technology.

WTH

A Nothing Deal on Guns

Members of the "bi-partisan" group of Senators tasked with "doing something" made the rounds on Sunday talking head shows on June 12 touting details of a "breakthrough" deal reached by the team. After reviewing those details, the net result seems to be rather Seinfeldian... A nothing deal.

The deal will

• offer money to states to implement additional "red flag" protections to allow guns to be taken from those deemed to be mentally unstable
• improve processes for sharing mental records for those under 21
• increase spending for mental health programs

But note... The deal OFFERS states money to implement programs. It doesn't impose any REQUIREMENTS and no Republican dominated state will change policy so this has no effect in half the country.

The deal will NOT

• move the minimum age for gun purchases to 21
• eliminate the sale of large capacity magazines
• alter liability laws for gun manufacturers or parents to shift costs of gun violence onto causers of gun violence

It's worth noting that there is a pending case on gun restrictions (the Bruen case involving New York State restrictions on concealed carry) looming in the Supreme Court. A ruling is expected in the next two weeks and court watchers are expecting the conservative majority to not only support the elimination of New York State's concealed carry law but to use this as a pretext to drastically EXPAND the interpretation of Second Amendment protections against ANY restriction of gun purchase and posession rights.

I can't help but assume that Republicans know this, that Republicans know this deal does nothing to change incentives driving gun violence but that Republicans also know coverage of this deal looks like they finally "moved" on this issue and will likely defuse anger in the public... at least until after November 2022. That may allow a possible change of control in both the House and Senate to Republicans who will CERTAINLY do nothing after November 2022 to begin solving this problem.

WTH