Let's Make a Deal

Economic models normally assume perfectly rational actors operating with perfect information about prices, supply and the goods and services involved in a decision. Even simple supply and demand models based on these assumptions are usually grossly inaccurate. Game theory is a field within economics that attempts to improve predictive results by factoring in the impact of actors operating with imperfect information or asymmetric access to information. The assumption behind game theory analysis is that INCLUDING intangible / unquantifiable factors into a model is more accurate than assuming they are zero and excluding them from the analysis.

The classic example of game theory is the Prisoner's Dilemma problem in which

• two parties A and B are jailed for suspicion of a crime
• the sheriff has no actual evidence on either suspect but believes both are guilty
• A and B are jailed in separate cells and unable to communicate with one another
• A and B are each offered a deal -- say nothing (serve less time on a lesser charge) or rat on the other (they serve a much longer term, you go free)

The best collective decision for both would be to say nothing and both only serve a minor term. However, individually each has the incentive to attempt to go free by ratting out the other hoping the other opts for the best collective path. However, when both make that same individually optimal decision, BOTH wind up serving a longer term. Even with a perfect understanding of the rules of the "game", the asymmetry of information (what is the other guy actually doing?) and the distorted incentives yield a sub-optimal result for the two.

The "coup attempt" in Russia on June 24, 2023 is the consequence of a Prisoner's Dilemma game on steroids with worldwide repercussions that is still being played. This game involves not only asymmetric information and incentives, but actors who are all acting upon distorted inputs and are morally and ethically irrational.

Key Players in the Game

Normally, it would be obvious to assume Vladmir Putin is the "sheriff" of this Prisoner's Dilemma game. One would assume he is the one dictating the rules of the game and therefore controls both the incentives facing the players and the information they use in their decisions. In reality, Putin is only one of the prisoners in the game. He is equally trapped by the distorted information created by the authoritarian regime he operates. He cannot trust information about the location and capability of his military any more than any of his potential rivals. The sheriff in the game is the entire authoritarian system, which distorts the inputs and warps the motives of everyone acting in the system to everyone's detriment.

Yevgeny Prigozhin is obviously a key player in the game. He has a long personal and economic history with Putin and, until 2023, appeared to enjoy a protected position in the Putin regime doing Putin's dirty work under lucrative contracts that enriched him personally.

Sergei Shoigu is a player in the game, serving as a proxy for the entire Russian Ministry of Defense. Like most authoritarians, Putin's primary strategy for maintaining control is to divide key areas of responsibility between competing (if not outright warring) factions. This approach attempts to ensure no single entity gains complete control over a key function and that Putin must routinely act as tie-breaker for any decision, thus assuring information has to be shared with him and that all parties see that he is still the final arbiter. Shoigu nominally heads the Ministry of Defense but Putin purposely diluted his power by allowing the Wagner Group to exist and by tasking it with some of the most critical Russian initiatives in the last decade (invasion of the Donbas region of Ukraine in 2014, operations in Syria to support Assad in 2016, now Ukraine proper).

Alexsandr Lukashenko might be appropriate to include as a player in this game as well. He leads Belarus which neighbors Ukraine to the north but has been in poor health for years, prompting repeated death watch stories in the media every few months. Belarus is crucial to Putin for multiple possible outcomes. Currently, Belarus has demonstrated zero ability to assist Russia with physical supplies or manpower in the war. Belarus has agreed to allow "tactical" nuclear weapons to be staged in the country but it isn't clear where this threat lies on the "sabre rattling" to "deadly threat" scale. The key advantage posed by a pliant Belarus is a clear supply line from Russia to the northern part of Ukraine that doesn't depend upon vulnerable bridges in the Crimean and eastern regions of Ukraine that are already damaged or at risk. Additionally, if supply chains can be established through Belarus, the fighting power delivered would be much closer to Kyev from that direction than if coming in from the east. However, use of Belarus as an alternate staging location is not currently a certainty, not only because of Lukashenko's poor health but because of his unpopularity within the country. If Lukashenko dies or loses power, it is not clear a successor would be as closely aligned with Putin unless the successor is hand picked and imposed by Putin.

Overarching Themes

No one has seen the text of any agreement between any of the actors in this game. There likely is no physical agreement (regardless of how it is summarized in the media) and even if a physical agreement exists, its written words mean nothing.

The appearance of loyalties are a factor in behavior but ACTUAL loyalties do not exist in an authoritarian government driven by brutality and fear. "Loyalties" will flip to the actor in closest proximity presenting the greatest immediate threat to one's survival. This holds not only for underlings losing favor with those above. It holds for those at the top when enough underlings devise ways to turn the tables and escape prior constraints.

While Wagner forces have been characterized as "elite" and highly lethal teams, they are NOT part of the official Russian military (that's the whole point of them being "off the books"). That means they do NOT control more sophisticated weaponry and they likely do NOT have access to more advanced intelligence and communications gear in the field. That means their internal communications are likely readily available for intercept by Putin (and to American intelligence, which is why American intelligence teams had word of these "events" in early June). Prigozhin likely understands the consequences of this and knows he enjoys zero confidentiality in any of his communications that would be required to coordinate a coup.

Both Putin and Prigozhin face prosecution for war crimes if they lose power or step foot in a western-aligned country. For each, their end-game strategies start with avoiding assassination by internal competing factions but even ignoring that, both must consider scenarios for living outside the construct of the existing Putin regime. In some sense, Prigozhin is better positioned than Putin for that eventuality. Wagner Group has deals with numerous regimes in Africa for providing training and ongoing protection services for dictators in those regimes. There are likely ten places Prigozhin could fly to in 24 hours to escape a meltdown in Russia and still have some possibility of escaping war crime prosecution.

Coup or Not?

Given all the (dis)information and incentives that can be observed, it seems unlikely the events of June 24, 2023 constituted a legitimate coup attempt, for these reasons:

• Prigozhin knows he had no ability to communicate coup plans without interception by Russian intelligence
• Prigozhin lacked the weaponry required to fend off attacks from jets that would occur upon nearing Moscow
• Prigozhin likely recognized that the loyalty and morale demonstrated by grunts in Rostov who faced the possibility of being sent to the front had zero correlation to the loyalty and morale of personnel controlling defenses of Moscow -- they WOULD likely follow orders and wipe him out from above in seconds
• Media reports on the "attack" by Russian forces on Wagner troops that supposedly prompted Prigozhin's coup indicate that in hindsight, the attacks look as staged as the "bombing" of the dome in Moscow a few weeks back

So if the events of June 24 weren't a coup, what were they? What did they accomplish, if anything?

Likely Outcomes

Regardless of whether Prigozhin's feint towards Moscow was real or not, the actual events in Rostov made it clear to Putin that an overwhelming share of defense ministry personnel and grunts in that region demonstrated ZERO loyalty to Putin. Wagner forces rolled into the city without a shot being fired. For an authoritarian ruling via fear, this information DEMANDS action. It confirms to the public what is likely unspoken but widely known but cannot be exposed openly. The defense leaders in that region can expect to die shortly. If there is an actual training facility or barracks for troops stationed in Rostov, it would seem certain that facility will be bombed by Russia in the coming weeks. The only mystery will be if Putin attempts to blame it on Ukraine or takes credit for it to send a message to other Russian forces to reimpose discipline through fear. Either way, it will be clear Putin directed it to happen.

Regardless of Putin's eventual goal for the war in Ukraine, Prigozhin is likely being relocated to Belarus to stage him as Lukashenko's replacement. In the short term, relocating Prigozhin to Belarus places him closer to Kyev to suit current war goals. Regardless of how the war goes, Putin wants to ensure Belarus stays aligned with Russia in the future and if Lukashenko dies or is tossed out through unrest, it is less clear to Putin if any other leader will take his place that will be as compliant as Prigozhin. Prigozhin has an incentive to stay in Belarus in the short term because he knows that remaining in a clear satellite country of Russia makes it less likely international forces will attempt to capture him for prosecution of war crimes. Prigozhin technically might not need an offer of "exile" in Belarus from Putin to protect himself. He has relationships with multiple states in Africa that could likely serve as refuges -- both from war crimes prosecution and assassination attempts by Putin if he thought that was a possibility. If Prigozhin stays in Belarus for any period of time, it would be a clear indication he is still allied with Putin.

If Prigozhin is being staged as a successor to Lukashenko, then what did Lukashenko get out of all of this? Probably nothing more than a few more months in power with an explicit vote of support from Putin Lukashenko can use internally to quell unrest while he waits for a final exit. If Russia does attempt to shift staging operations out of eastern Ukraine into Belarus, it is not clear how popular such an action would be domestically within Belarus. Additional unrest could topple Lukashenko, making his end of days much less comfortable than merely waiting it out and dying in place.

It is less clear what impact the "agreement" has upon the Russian military at the ground level or in the Ministry of Defense. Deaths on the ground in Ukraine have already churned through a surprising number of commanders, including 5-14 generals depending on whether you trust Russian figures or Ukrainian figures. Putin has shuffled leaders further up the chain several times with little improvement in outcomes on the battlefield. At this point, folding Wagner forces back under the control of the Russian military does not alter the calculus of the war. Wagner entered Ukraine with nearly 50,000 troops, recruited roughly 20,000 from Russian prisons between summer 2022 and February 2023 and began its action in Rostov with approximately 25,000 troops. That's a net loss of 45,000 men in sixteen months of fighting. Both Prigozhin and Putin have likely realized the mercenary strategy cannot scale to overcome Ukrainian strength and Russian incompetence.

It is crucial for western-aligned countries to understand that any shuffling of power within the Ministry of Defense that topples Sergei Shoigu from power does not mean Putin and the Russian military have recognized their folly in invading Ukraine and will begin tacking to negotiating an exit. Prigozhin's primary complaint has never been that the war shouldn't have been launched or it cannot be won, only that incompetent, corrupt military bureaucrats were causing unnecessary losses of men who should have been able to fulfill the mission. Prigozhin is no dove. He would focus MORE lethality on Ukraine. Putin is already so close to losing control of his empire, he may very well conclude the odds are higher for him remaining in power by continuing to fight in Ukraine than exiting and needing to keep the oligarchs beneath him in line to retain power.

WTH

Russia's Heart of Darkness

The civil strife of 2023 looming in Russia is appearing more each day like an amped up Russian-language remake of the 1979 movie Apocalypse Now, which itself was derived from the 1899 novella Heart of Darkness by Joseph Conrad. Some story arcs are timeless because they reflect flaws intrinsic to human nature. The movie incarnation of the book used the war in Vietnam as the backdrop to illustrate the moral mind warp that can emerge from fighting in a war as soldiers, already freed of the normal moral ballast of "thou shalt not kill" and facing death delivered by ever more efficient technologies, adopt a strategy of out-brutalizing their enemy in an attempt to win first and stop the killing. The logic of the argument can make sense to someone in the battle but in reality makes no sense because it justifies expanding the violence to larger and larger numbers of "the enemy" which inevitably grows beyond traditional military forces to innocent civilians.

In the 2023 remake underway in Russia, the Colonel Kurtz role is being filled by Wagner PMC head Yevgeny Prigozhin but his role has a background no novelist or Hollywood screenwriter would have the imagination to write. Prigozhin's story arc literally began from selling hot dogs in an outdoor stand in Leningrad in 1991, just as the Gorbachev era Soviet Union was collapsing. As he ventured into other restaurants and catering businesses, he crossed paths with Vladmir Putin who patronized his restaurants and began tossing Prigozhin's businesses millions, then billions of rubles worth of contracts to provide food to schools, government buildings and eventually the military. Like Putin himself, Prigozhin mastered the art of corruption and was pocketing a large portion of these contracts for himself.

Most notably for current events, Prigozhin used profits from military contracts as early as 2012 to found Internet Research Agency, a front for a worldwide hacking and social media disinformation and trolling entity linked to numerous efforts to sow dissent in the media of Putin's enemies including nearly every western democracy. As Russia began attacks against Ukraine in 2014 by invading the Donbas region on the eastern side of Ukraine, Prigozhin created his private mercenary firm, Wagner Group to essentially perform Putin's "wet work" on an outsourced basis. At that time, Putin no doubt thought this was a brilliant strategy on his part.

• Putin gains plausible deniability for the more brutal tasks outsourced to Wagner
• a private military group can operate in Ukraine without OBVIOUSLY looking like the Russian military
• funneling government military spending through a friend serves to put a check on forces in the Russian military who might not be looking out for Putin
• funneling government military spending through a friend produces a sense of obligation by that friend upon Putin which enhances Putin's power within Russia
• funneling government military spending through a friend is personally enriching to Putin, allowing him to skim part of the government spending

Putin has spoke publicly numerous times since the 2022 invasion of Ukriane about Russia's role in history and essentially a Putin version of "manifest destiny" justifying Russian control over a huge swath of the Asian continent. However, he probably should have spent an evening rewatching Apocalypse Now for some key strategic insights. In the opening scene, Captain Willard (Charlie Sheen's character) is alone in a hotel room in Saigon, presumably after a mission and R&R trip back to the States, awaiting his next mission. As he tosses and turns, he summarizes his predicament:

When I was here, I wanted to be there. When I was there, all I could do was think about getting back to the jungle. I'm here a week now. Waiting for a mission. Getting softer. Every minute I stay in this room, I get weaker, and every minute Charlie squats in the bush, he gets stronger.

When Willard eventually finds Kurtz amidst his cult in the jungle and speaks with him, Kurtz outlines his philosophy of war this way:

I've seen horror. What horrors have you seen? You have no right to call me a murderer. You have a right to kill me. You have a right to do that, but you have no right to judge me. It's impossible for words to describe what is necessary to those who do not know what horror means. Horror. Horror has a face, and you must make a friend of horror. Horror and moral terror are your friends. If they are not, then they are enemies to be feared. They are truly enemies.

I remember when I was with Special Forces… It seems a thousand centuries ago. We went into a camp to inoculate children. We left the camp after we had inoculated the children for polio and this old man came running after us, he was crying and couldn't say… We went back there and they had come and hacked off every inoculated arm. There they were, in a pile, little arms.. And I remember.. I cried, I wept… like some grandmother. I wanted to tear my teeth out. I didn't know what I wanted to do. And I want to remember it, I never want to forget it. I never want to forget. And then I realized, like I was shot, like I was shot with a diamond, a diamond bullet right through my forehead. And I thought, my god, the GENIUS of that. The genius, the will to do that. Perfect, Genuine. Complete. Crystalline. Pure.

Then I realized they were stronger than me because they could stand that these were not monsters, these were men, trained cadres. These men who fought with their hearts, who have families, who have children, who are filled with love. They had the strength… the strength… to do that. If I had ten divisions of those men, then our troubles here would be over very quickly. You have to have men who are moral and at the same time are able to utilize their primordial instincts to kill without feeling, without passion, without judgement. Without judgement, because it's judgement that defeats us.

Those two dynamics from the movie capture everything needed to understand the current and eventual fate of the Russian empire.

Corruption pervades every aspect of Russian life, for the government, the military and the public. Billions spent on military equipment and supplies has been consistently redirected and skimmed for nearly thirty years into private hands yielding a military with possibly as little as forty percent of what it was supposed to have on paper. Grunts serving in the military see the corruption from the top and have no power to combat it so they participate as well, destroying any traditional sense of command and control discipline within the ranks. In the meantime, crucial military operations have been outsourced to a subset of forces who performed a majority of the dirtiest work, are able to use graft to obtain actual supplies needed and thus get the majority of the "practice" at doing the dirtiest work.

In Apocalypse Now terms, the Russian military plays the role of Captain Willard, realizing it has become "soft" through graft and corruption while its enemies (first the Ukrainians and now Wagner Group) have become hardened in combat and are far more effective combatants. Prigozhin has become Colonel Kurtz, a rogue military commander warped both by a lifetime of corruption and the unique crucible of war, who is capable of seeing "evil" that needs to be destroyed in the person of Putin but cannot see he is equally unfit to lead because he himself is a direct creator and beneficiary of the same regime that is morally corrupt from top to bottom. Putin is akin to the Lt General Corman character, a leader directing an already immoral war, who utilized someone willling to operate at an even LOWER moral level as long as it suited his purposes but now must stop that actor, not because of the actor's immoral actions against others but because those actions now pose an existential threat to Putin himself.

These dynamics have profound impacts for the war in Ukraine and beyond.

Ukraine and the larger Western collection of its allies must avoid ANY inclination to lapse into "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" thinking. Most of the time, both parties are just bad people who need to stay at arm's length. Putin AND Prigozhin are both war criminals. There's no "soul" in either figure.

Within the confines of incentives likely to drive decisions of a war criminal, it can be assumed that Prigozhin can properly interpret tactical information about the location of forces, available supplies and communication channels to judge risks to his own forces. The fact that Prigozhin has withdrawn Wagner forces from Bahkmut and driven one hundred kilometers into Russia to take over the city of Rostov implies he knows Russian forces are so depleted there are no battle hardened troops available to turn back his forces.

Prigozhin also operates in at least ten African countries, offering ongoing training for military and security staff of dictators and despots in those countries. He likely has multiple emergency contingency alternatives to whisk him out of danger as Putin now begins taking steps to quell Prigozhin's rebellion.

If Putin and Prigozhin somehow manage to eliminate each other from the scene simultaneously, the resulting situation in Russia will be no less dangerous -- to Russians themselves or the world. There may not be a successor waiting in the wings quite as cold-blooded as Putin or Prigozhin when it comes to bombing apartment complexes, shooting your own soldiers or blowing up dams and nuclear power facilities but there will be plenty of wanna-be successors who are equally corrupt. Russian society has done nothing since the collapse of "Russia Classic" to foster a legitimate legal system and government. There's no "farm team" at a triple A club in Siberia ("go Huskies!") educating high school teens on the principles of democracy like a Russian version of Boys / Girls State. There's no Russian equivalent of Junior Achievement teaching concepts of business and entrepreneurship.

If Putin is toppled, threats facing leaders of Russian's satellite nations will grow exponentially as they lose their protection, likely generating more leadership changes and unrest. This could create more refugee traffic between these satellites or out of them into bordering western aligned states. There are already economic stresses being incurred in countries like Poland and Germany who took in refugees at the beginning of the war. Those economic costs pose their own political challenges to the host governments.

WTH

Indictment #2: To Jupiter and Beyond the Infinite

Here we are again. Episode 2 of a legal / political / cultural disaster miniseries -- The Trump Docket -- was just aired. Now the entire world has been distracted from what SHOULD be far more important unavoidable issues to again focus on the fallout resulting from the actions of a career criminal who somehow managed to become elected President of the United States who continued his crimes during his tenure and beyond. There's no assurance Trump will be convicted for these alleged crimes and there isn't even any assurance he will "STAY" convicted for any reasonable period. It can be assured that the public drama and distraction resulting from these charges (and those likely to follow in three other areas) will create ripple effects for America and the world no one can foresee.

The effect of watching these processes play out is akin to the Jupiter and Beyond the Infinite segment of the movie 2001: A space odyssey. Like Dave the astronaut hurtling through a star gate, watching stars streak by outside the window as ever-changing details while never reaching his destination, the Trump crime saga is producing a never-ending series of shocking / disgusting details that generate tremendous distraction from other critical issues yet never seem to reach resolution, instead snowballing into ever greater masses of chaos and criminality.

Indictment #2 is worth reviewing by every American. The language is perfectly targeted towards a tenth grade reading level to allow everyone to clearly understand the severity of the alleged crimes and the risk they pose to our national security.

Legal Treatise or Speaking Indictment

Jack Smith and team decided to file a "speaking indictment" rather than a dry, jargonistic litany of official charges. Smith made a short appearance on June 9 to make a statement to the press and he spoke for exactly two minutes and thirty seconds. Included in the statement was this:

The men and women of the United States intelligence community and our armed forces dedicate their lives to protecting our nation and its people. Our laws that protect national defense information are critical to the safety and security of the United States and they must be enforced. Violations of those laws put our country at risk.

He later made this comment:

It’s very important for me to note that the defendants in this case must be presumed innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law. To that end, my office will seek a speedy trial in this matter. Consistent with the public interest and the rights of the accused. We very much look forward to presenting our case to a jury of citizens in the Southern District of Florida.

That is actually one of the more telling statements he made, for reasons that will be covered later. The combination of the indictment language and Smith's very brief public statement conveys that Smith clearly understands the legal / media / calendar dimensions of the prosecution being pursued. They also convey that he appears to have selected a strategy in which 100% of his team's focus will be on content and narrative as they will be presented to a jury and virtually zero time will be spent "feeding the beast" and keeping the media amused. Besides, he still has two other areas of criminal investigation to pursue.

The indictment write-up smoothly alternates between:

• concise bullets identifying specific events which provide prima facia evidence of crimes under the Espionage Act regarding unlawful possession and disclosure of the existence of or content within classified documents to unauthorized individuals
• references to prior statements made by Trump running for office in 2016 and as President in which he explicitly stated how critical proper handling of classified information should be should he become President or will be after he became President and signed into law harsher penalties for violations of the EXACT nature he subsequently committed
• clear timeline narratives with supporting details from texts, emails and audio transcripts reflecting how Trump was PERSONNALLY involved with efforts to obstruct his own lawyers from finding and returning documents he wanted to keep, thereby executing a conspiracy to obstruct DOJ investigations

If the entire document is to be considered a "who dunnit" crime novel, by the end of the forty four page narrative, there's no doubt that Trump was the lead actor -- the extent to which few if any had surmised prior to the release of the indictment.

Trump packed many of the boxes in the Oval Office and White House residence on move-out day.

Trump directed boxes to be shuffled from the Mar-a-Lago storeroom to his private Mar-a-Lago residence between November 2021 and January 15, 2022 so he could personally cull additional items of interest from the larger collection.

Trump had direct phone calls with his aide Walt Nauto during 2022, each of which resulted in movement of additional boxes between different storage areas of Mar-a-Lago within MINUTES of the conversations, all captured on security surveillance cameras.

In one of those calls, Trump instructed his aide to move boxes OUT of the storage area a day before allowing his own lawyer to conduct a "search" to ensure that search would only cover a subset of content -- an attempt to trick the lawyer into supporting the obstruction of the subpoena. All in all, Trump directed that sixty four boxes be spirited out of the storage room to his private residence while only thirty boxes were returned after being hand-filtered by Trump himself.

Trump also directed dozens of the boxes in question to be flown with him to his Bedminster golf resort in May of 2021. On two different occasions in the summer of 2021, Trump disclosed the existence of some of those documents and information about their contents to unauthorized guests visiting him.

Is It Enough?

As stated at the outset, the indictment is well written for the challenges Smith cases in prosecuting the case. It uses a narrative flow to highlight Trump's criminal culpability by making it clear Trump KNEW the conditions of the applicable laws, chose throughout his Presidency and AFTER his Presidency to ignore those conditions, grossly mishandled the documents while in his possession (in a bathroom? Under a three inch water pipe in a storage room? On a stage in a public ballroom?) then committed obscene crimes of obstruction once engaged by NARA and DOJ/FBI. It also provides more concise "sound bytes" which lend themselves to being quoted verbatim in public discourse to help prepare the way for a trial.

But is it enough? It will be many months before it is clear whether the facts will click with a jury drawn at random from a South Florida jury pool. What are the barriers to an eventual conviction? Is an actual conviction sufficient to re-establish the rule of law? Is an actual conviction enough to keep Trump from winning re-election as President and pardoning himself? Will a conviction stick if a different Republican wins the Presidency and takes office on January 20, 2025?

The case logistics merit analysis.

Why Florida? -- Ultimately, the DOJ filed these charges in Florida because most of the alleged crimes physically took place in Florida and filing charges in the DC district court could have resulted in the case being tossed for being filed in the wrong venue. Many have commented that secondarily, Smith decided to file the charges in Florida to avoid allegations of picking a more anti-Trump venue, thus proving his confidence in the facts of the case by taking the case directly into "Trump country." That is likely wishful thinking.

Timing is EVERYTHING -- This issue has played out since mid-2021 when the National Archives recognized documents were missing from its collection that were known to have been in the custody of the President, attempted to ASK for the documents' return, had little cooperation then referred the issue to the FBI in early 2022. On one hand it appears the process took FAR LONGER to get this point than it should have. It seems clear any OTHER individual under the same circumstances would have had a month to respond to the original NARA request, a week to comply with an FBI subpoena, then would have been arrested and charged after finding applicable documents via search warrant. On the other hand, could Smith have spent any more time to perfect the case before filing charges?

In reality, Smith has ONE date in mind with this case -- January 20, 2025. This case needs to go to trial and reach a verdict prior to any new President taking office on January 20, 2025. Ideally it should reach a verdict so voters can incorporate that outcome in their votes in 2024. Given that Trump is currently the leading Republican candidate in polls for 2024, it is INCONCIEVABLY conceivable that Trump could BE the next President and he will immediately pardon himself upon taking office. This is just one of many shocking educational outcomes of this constitutional nightmare. The ONLY disqualification for holding the office of President is a conviction by the United States Senate after an impeachment by the United States House of Representatives. An actual FELONY CONVICTION in federal or state court is NOT a disqualifying event.

Sadly, Trump winning the Presidency is not the only nightmare scenario that could negate a conviction. I expect the morally deviant Republican Party will concoct a new internal litmus test for its Presidential candidates, demanding any candidate promise to pardon Trump on Day One of taking office. Either way, if that happens, the stars and stripes could at that point be replaced with a giant Dole sticker because at that point, the United States will have confirmed its transformation into a banana republic.

Docs Versus Vote Rigging Versus Insurrection? -- Many cynical watchers of the larger Trump Docket saga might express frustration that nailing Trump on document handling violations versus attempts to sabotage electoral votings or physically prevent the transfer of power via riots is like sending Al Capone for tax evasion instead of running a national organized crime syndicate. Is THIS case really the most important one to put first?

Perhaps the best way to address this question is by first re-reading the details of the indictment. It provides more detail than previously known about the sensitivity of the documents involved. The indictment includes 31 criminal counts each mapped to specific documents for which the indictment only identifies the security classification and an approximate origination date of the document. The nature of those documents implied by that information is jaw dropping. Now consider that prior paperwork for subpoenas and search warrants referenced over THREE HUNDRED classified documents. The fact that the indictment is omitting references to HUNDREDS of documents is an indication of the criticality of some of the information impacted. Much of the material may still be so sensitive the DOJ, military and intelligence organizations cannot allow its existence to be disclosed to a jury of average Americans.

After pondering THAT aspect of the indictment, a second re-read of the indictment makes it clear that the facts of this case are much easier to explain to a jury pool. They don't involve warped interpretations of constitutional law, bizarre theories about specially formed State Legislature panels picking alternate slates of electors for the Electoral College, computer security issues tied to bogus claims about electronic voting fraud, etc. More importantly, all of the evidence supporting the criminal charges comes not from DOJ sources or material seized via search warrant (other than getting the documents back…). All of the evidence comes from individuals working for Trump in office or after leaving office, from photos taken by Trump employees of his resort, from conversations between Trump and his legal team or from conversations between Trump and visitors TRUMP brought into his environment at HIS request.

Aileen Cannon? You Can't Be Serious! -- As mentioned before, filing this indictment in the DC District Court might have resulted in the case eventually being tossed for being in the wrong venue based on where the crimes were actually committed. However, putting the case back in that district puts it up for assignment to any judge in that district, which --- SIGHHHHHH -- includes Judge Aileen Cannon, the Trump appointee who interfered in spectacularly incompetent and suspect fashion when Trump filed motions earlier in this process to block the DOJ's use of materials seized via the search warrant.

In what has to be one of the most UNBELIEVABLE "random" occurrences in legal history, Aileen Cannon HAS IN FACT been initially assigned to hear this case, within hours of the filing of the charges becoming public on June 8, 2023. There are fifteen judges in the South Florida District and another eleven senior judges ("emeritus?") who work reduced caseloads for the district as well. Out of twenty six possible judges, the South Florida's back office process somehow "randomly" assigned Cannon to this case. The entire country will be watching to see if Cannon decides to recuse herself over justifiable concerns over her prior incompetent and seemingly biased interference with prior stages of this case. Or maybe Cannon will read the indictment like everyone else in the legal profession and conclude even she cannot remain in the tank for Trump and will attempt to manage the case without putting both thumbs on the scale on behalf of the man who appointed her to her position.

Regardless of what Cannon decides to do, the very fact the entire country is in a position where such a crucial case with incredible Constitutional and timeline sensitivities is now subject to the incompetence and likely delays related to bad rulings and motions from the defendant and prosecutor to argue those bad rulings is a sign of a MASSIVE failure of the judicial system in this country. Cannon should have been removed from the bench and disbarred for the gross incompetence she demonstrated in 2022. With probably any other judge, it would seem Jack Smith assembled a bulletproof collection of facts to support a conviction. With Cannon possibly affecting decisions about allowable evidence and directions to jurors, NOTHING is assured with this case. And the defendant gets appeals. The prosecution only gets one bite at the apple. If a judge cripples a case, there is no appeal.

If It's Tuesday, It Must be Miami -- A final dilemma that will become an immediately problem for justice in all things Trump is simply scheduling. Trump is already under criminal indictment in New York State court for tax fraud and business documents, now federal indictment in Florida for espionage, document handling and obstruction of justice charges. It seems clear there are additional state criminal charges coming in Georgia and two separate sets of criminal charges in DC related to electoral college voting fraud and insurrection charges. And Trump wants to run for President and will obviously demand he be allowed to prioritize "campaign events" over attending court proceedings or meeting with his counsel. All of the courts involved with all of these cases will need to enforce a consistent priority upon their shared defendant to make it clear these proceedings come first over whatever Trump expects to do as a candidate. Trump will scream such a prioritization amounts to campaign interference but all of these courts will need to counter that with a consistent message. Part of the downside of being a defendant is that you no longer control your calendar. Of course, each of the courts will need to carefully manage their calendar to ensure they don't work at cross purposes when scheduling appearances, etc. that allow Trump to delay proceedings.

WTH

(Formerly) Rich Dumb People

A month or two prior to the meltdown of the Sam Bankman-Fried fraud empire, a YouTube channel Coffeezilla had managed to figure out the scale and mechanics of the scheme, most notably by joining an investor conference call with SBF and asking a question which SBF was dumb enough to answer by confirming FTX was in fact co-mingling client funds with FTX's internal funds that were being gambled in its separate Alameda Capital affiliate, a direct criminal violation of its terms of service.

Now the same channel is releasing another series of videos about its investigation into another crypto-based ponzi scheme operated as The Trader's Domain by a man named Ted Safranko and others which may have stolen anywhere from $145 million (per the CFTC in its filing of charges against the firm) to $500 million (his estimate) by promising outlandish returns (10% monthly!) courtesy of unique trading algorithms in its proprietary trading platform.

The Trader's Domain promoted itself as an online broker platform for foreign exchange (forex) investors / speculators. The core of the alleged fraud centers upon the firm's description of its operations as an A-booking broker versus a B-booking broker. In forex terminology, a broker using A-booking sits between retail traders and entities that act as Liquidity Providers (LPs) and makes money off fixed percentages of trading volume that essentially equate to fees for maintaining trade records. In the B-book model, the broker not only handles the "retail paperwork" of trades with its individual customers, it also acts as a market maker ("ruh roh...") and can act as the other side of a trade to provide liquidity... ...but also to trade for its own benefit if it thinks it spots an opportunity... ...even if that opportunity comes at the expense of its own client. The Trader's Domain explicitly advertised itself as an A-book broker -- "totally safe" because of that -- while promising 10% MONTHLY returns based on its proprietary algorithms.

It takes zero imagination to guess how this story ends. The Trader's Domain explicitly touted the A-booking operating model it used, explicitly touted the SAFETY provided to clients by staying on the "A-side" of operations, touted the unique advantages of its proprietary algorithms to help customers spot profitable trades and created promotions for itself claiming to target only sophisticated investors who had the coin to play for big stakes in the rough-and-tough, dog-eat-dog but highly lucrative forex segment. Of course, this type of tough guy, dog-eat-dog promotion approach finds an audience online.

There are apparently hundreds / THOUSANDS of people with $250,000 or $1 million or $5 million burning a hole in their pocket who bought into this scheme then watched their money vanish. One person realized The Trader's Domain was rigging its books after he signed up, created his online account, initiated a wire transfer from his bank to The Trader's Domain for $500,000 and within an hour, his account at The Trader's Domain showed an investible balance of $500,000. GREAT! Then he got a call from his bank. THE NEXT DAY. Asking him to confirm a few details on the wire transfer, which had not been executed yet, providing confirmation that The Trader's Domain systems were designed to allow manual manipulations of balances not reflecting reality. Another got the clue only after remembering that while creating his online account, he was not allowed to choose USA as his country of origin. He was told to select "CRYPTO" for that field.

Research described in Coffeezilla's video uncovers an extensive pattern of bogus financial transactions between The Trader's Domain and a bunch of shell companies created by its owners in other countries with invoices ranging from $100,000 to $1,000,000 used to provide the illusion of a large firm incurring various expenses for its burgeoning enterprise while of course actually laundering the money and getting it out of US banks. One of the expenses being incurred was for white label hosting services provided by B2Broker, a firm which operates B-book trading software as a web platform that can be rebranded with retail broker names / logos. The Trader's Domain site was just a "white label" site provided by B2Broker -- no proprietary algorithms involved and none of the restrictions / protections of an A-book oriented platform.

The first two installments of the tale can be viewed here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8AcHRQ_2oo (Part 1)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1l-JEUwnDhk (Part 2)

It's not clear what's more disappointing at this point. The fact that a single YouTuber seems to be outpacing regulators and law enforcement at identifying the scale of these icebergs of fraud? Or the fact that the public is so woefully ignorant about financial matters and willing to be deceived by such obviously fraudulent schemes? The trend speaks volumes about what is ailing America right now. A country bent on starving regulatory functions in the public sphere, starving educational funding to provide basic common sense and financial / legal literacy and a willingness to release the wolves on the resulting multitudes of gullible sheep.

WTH

What the World Needs Now

What the world needs now is a $3499 virtual reality headset.

That's the idea one might get from reviewing all of the breathless coverage granted to the latest product announcements touted by Apple during its World Wide Developer Conference 2023 held June 5, 2023. What's really going to take people to the next level is a Vision Pro headset that looks like a battery powered set of ski goggles with advanced technology that can focus its image rendering computing power only on the areas your eyes are watching on the inside hi-res screen as you watch areas you're staring at become larger so you can reach out in mid-air to pinch them to launch an app or send a tweet. And if that wasn't enough innovation, you can consider buying the latest Mac Pro laptop which is a mere 11.5 millimeters thick, cuz a 15.5 milimeter thick laptop is such a burden.

What? Not interested in a $3499 gadget for gamers?

How about bringing the world together with GOLF? Can't we stop fighting over top men's golf talent and merge the PGA and LIV golf tours so we can just focus on selling Viagra, luxury cars, and consulting services to executives? For a game supposedly focused on honor and moral rectitude, America's PGA has made it crystal clear where those priorities sit in comparison to money. There is no other priority other than money if you are willing to split the take with an organization fronting for a criminal family regime that funded the September 11, 2011 attacks and has zero qualms about silencing one of its own dissident Saudi citizens -- one working in the US -- by luring him to a Saudi embassy in a third country to strangle him, chop him up into small briefcase sized pieces and fly back the parts on a private jet from Turkey to Saudi Arabia.

Are these really the types of problems that should be occupying our focus and emptying our wallets? Having hundreds / thousands of engineers devising hardware and virtual reality algorithms for game players trying to avoid dealing with the ACTUAL reality surrounding them? Merging golf associations to create more tournaments with multi-million dollar purses to attract players and fans to courses in the desert so billionaire terrorists can launder their money?

As events turned out, it seems June 5 and 6, 2023 might have been a very apropos period to ask people to ponder that question. At 2:50am local time on June 6, 2023, explosions in the inner engine room of the power station of the Kakhovka damn in Ukraine compromised the upper section of the dam, beginning a catastrophic release of roughly ten meters (maybe more) of water to parts of southern Ukraine, threatening at least 80 towns and villages. Ukrainian and Russian officials both released statements blaming the other for the blast but an analysis of events leading up to the failure and its impacts seems to point towards Russia purposely triggering the failure.

• witnesses report no sounds of incoming artillery fire or incoming missiles
• incoming artillery shells or missiles are unlikely to be able to produce the damage as far down as the explosions encountered
• Ukrainian intelligence claimed that Russia rigged mines throughout the interior of the dam after seizing it in November of 2022 as a defensive measure
• Initial downstream flood damage will initially be worse in lower elevation areas occupied by Russia (implying a possible Ukrainian motive) but that really doesn't mean anything if Russia has given up hope on controlling that territory and instead just wants to "salt the earth" as they retreat back through Crimea

It must be mentioned that Ukraine does not have a completely empty record of eco-terrorism in wartime either. Coincidentally, also on June 6, 2023 The Washington Post published a story summarizing intelligence the US and Western allies had as of mid-2022 that Ukraine was planning an attack on the new Nord 2 pipeline that was about to go live delivering gas from Russian to Germany. The pipeline owner was 51% controlled by Russia's Gazprom but the minority ownership was split between German, French and Dutch firms that stood to make billions in fees previously paid by Russia to Ukraine to use Ukranian pipelines. The original plot was slated to take place around June 5 of 2022 but was thought to have been put on hold, possibly due to subliminal (or not so subliminal) requests from the US to avoid such an outright attack on a Russian asset. The Post story states the events of the eventual attack in September 2022 matched many of the tactical steps of the original plan that had circulated earlier in 2022 and the team operated explicitly at the direction of Ukraine's top military leader while leaving President Zelensky out of the loop for deniability with the West. At the time of the bombing in September 2022, the technically idle pipeline had already been charged with about 300 million cubic feet of gas in preparation for going live, so the bombing released at least that much hydrocarbon gas into the atmosphere.

Destruction of the dam also completely destroyed a lock system that supported upstream shipping traffic which will cripple transportation for the rest of the war and whatever lies beyond. Unleashing the reservoir also eliminates the water source for canals which provide water for irrigation throughout the southern tip of Ukraine and into Crimea as well, providing further evidence that Russia may have zero intent on trying to retain control of any of the territories. The consequences of this blast instead imply Russia is bent on simple destruction. If Putin cannot have it, NO ONE will survive and no one else will be able to live there for decades -- if not centuries.

Sadly enough, the catastrophe currently washing over southern Ukraine is not remotely close to the worst case scenario. About 120 miles northeast of the destroyed dam is the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which relies on the elevated water levels of the reservoir behind the dam for intake of cooling water for its six nuclear reactors. As a result of shelling around the nuclear plant earlier in the war, all six reactors were taken offline for power generation and five of the six were reverted to a "cold" state. However, one reactor was kept in a slightly "warmer" state to make it easier to spin back up to online status if the war progressed in the right direction to allow safe operation. As a few engineers have calculated, all six reactors SHOULD be at a temperature now where a garden hose could provide enough water on a daily basis to keep spent rods and currently loaded rods cool. However, the drop in the reservoir level now likely means none of the reactors can be powered up after hostilities end to supply energy for the country.

But even THAT is not the worst-case scenario. Putin has already allowed shelling within YARDS of that nuclear plant when it WAS online at the beginning of the war. Risk to the containment buildings, supporting grid infrastructure required to power the plant's own safety equipment or the integrity of the cooling ponds for spent fuel were of zero concern to Putin as artillery shells and missiles were fired near the plant within three days of the war starting on February 22, 2022. According to a 2017 document submitted by Ukriaine to the IAEA, the plant houses roughly 2200 tons of spent fuel, 1984 modules in cooling ponds and 3354 modules in "dry pools." If the integrity of those pools was compromised, the material would leak into the Dnieper river, flow down to the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea and contaminate both for centuries.

Putin was thought to have mined the Kakhovka dam back in November 2022 in anticipation of this scorched earth retreat tactic and now appears to have done it. Would Putin employ the same tactic at a nuclear power plant? At this point, EVERY bit of Putin's conduct over the last thirty years confirms that every nation has to assume Putin would consider such actions and that the risks are SIGNIFICANTLY higher than zero percent.

Americans have a unique role to ponder in the evolution of Putin on the world stage. Since Putin emerged as a dominant figure in Russian politics in the mid-1990s, three different Presidents have adopted catastrophically flawed strategies for dealing with Putin. George W. Bush met with Putin on June 16, 2001 for initial talks about arms treaties, spheres of influence, etc. At the conclusion of the meeting, a press conference was held, one famous for a remark made by Bush in answer to a reporter's question. The question was this:

A question to both of you, if I may. President Putin, President Bush has said that he's going to go forward with his missile defense plans basically with or without your blessing. Are you unyielding in your opposition to his missile defense plan? Is there anything you can do to stop it?

And to President Bush. Did President Putin ease your concern at all about the spread of nuclear technologies by Russia, and is this a man that Americans can trust?

The answer everyone remembers from Bush was this:

I will answer the question. I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country. And I appreciated so very much the frank dialogue.

There was no kind of diplomatic chit-chat, trying to throw each other off balance. There was a straightforward dialogue. And that's the beginning of a very constructive relationship. I wouldn't have invited him to my ranch if I didn't trust him.

What few remember about that event was that Putin answered his question FIRST and the last words of his response just before Bush spoke were these:

Can we trust Russia? I'm not going to answer that. I could ask the very same question.

There was ZERO sign of warm and fuzzy bonhomie there. Bush, forever clueless, missed that signal and launched into his bit about looking into Putin's soul. Before any reporter questions, Bush also said this as part of prepared remarks, further confirming his mis-read was not an off-the-cuff mistake but systemic throughout his team:

This was a very good meeting. And I look forward to my next meeting with President Putin in July. I very much enjoyed our time together. He's an honest, straightforward man who loves his country. He loves his family. We share a lot of values. I view him as a remarkable leader. I believe his leadership will serve Russia well. Russia and America have the opportunity to accomplish much together; we should seize it. And today, we have begun.

Obama was under no illusion about Putin having a soul but assumed Putin could at least be counted on to act in a vaguely rational manner, albeit in line with pretty warped criminal priorities. Obama hoped Putin's ability to act "rationally" in the context of stateless terrorism in the form of ISIS would drive Putin to contribute to international efforts to defeat ISIS within Iraq and Syria. In reality, Putin used the opportunity to simply prop up Basheer Asad in Syria to defend Russian interests in having a presence there. At the same time while America was distracted by doing more of the lifting to defeat ISIS, Putin started interfering with Ukraine, eventually invading Crimea and meddling with eastern regions.

Finally, there's Donald Trump… A man so mentally deficient he is unable to identify even the most obvious mental manipulations of an enemy… A man so envious of Putin's authoritarian power over his enemies that he acted publicly like a fanboy, even publicly encouraging Putin to meddle in the 2016 election ("Russia, if you're listening…")… A man impeached for actions tied to extorting the President of Ukraine on a "perfect phone call" for campaign dirt on his upcoming 2020 opponent Joe Biden in exchange for supplying Ukraine weapons Congress had already directed to be supplied at a time when Ukraine needed them to attempt to deter the escalating threat of invasion from Russia. The first impeachment made it perfectly clear to Putin how successfully he had compromised Trump as President. The acquittal in that first impeachment made it perfectly clear to Putin how successfully he had compromised the entire Republican Party. The events of January 6, 2021, the second impeachment, the second acquittal and the unprecedented "hostile" change of leadership on January 20, 2021 led Putin to conclude America would be paralyzed by internal division he had helped to sow since 2015 and would refuse to engage if he pursued an invasion of Ukraine. He continued massing troops and equipment in Crimea and the Donbas regions over the next twelve months and was ready to invade by February 24, 2022.

No, the world doesn't need a new virtual reality toy. The world doesn't need more golf tournaments in the desert. What the world needs right now is an injection of actual reality into the priorities and decision making of the leaders of the so-called "free world" that can eliminate the gun violence, social media and nano-divisions of political correctness that are taking our eye off the ball and preventing the creation of real strategies for solving REAL problems. Like an addiction to toxic hydrocarbon energy that poisons the planet and funds despots and criminals who are actively sowing economic and social chaos throughout the world. How many more reminders of the REAL needs of the world are required to shake the public out of its stupor? How many more will we get?