We keep seeing stories of how resourceful Ukraine forces continue executing unexpected and surgically impactful attacks on Russian forces and capabilities. An example just posted involved one of Russia's most capable ships getting attacked and triggering abandonment of the crew after Ukraine forces first distracted the crew with drone flights on one side of the ship while a different contingent prepared a missile launch against the ship from the other direction. There are also signs that Ukraine forces took out a major petroleum plant just inside Russia that was likely key to providing fuel to Russian supply chains into Ukraine.
It seems there are two vastly different ways to interpret the current situation that are both equally plausible but both equally likely to result in huge increases in casualties.
The facts seem to be:
- the government of Russia is obviously corrupted beyond measure
- the economy of Russia is obviously corrupted beyond measure
- in hindsight, it should have been obvious the MILITARY would be equally corrupt
- in hindsight, it is impossible for a military to be corrupt but competent
- in hindsight, military spending through the other corruption weakened its worth substantially
- Russian troop were already likely incapable of delivering this "mission", whatever it was
- Russian troops certainly have zero motivation NOW to try to "win" this "mission"
- with poor military leadership, shoddy gear and no discernable military strategy identified, Russian forces are some combination of missile catchers and plundering war criminals
On one hand, those facts would SEEM to indicate Putin is incredibly weak right now. Western countries could beef up supplies to Ukraine to support dealing a few crucial direct blows to Russian forces in Ukraine or perhaps targets in Russia. With a few key blows, it might trigger internal strife between the Russian military, the oligarchs and Putin and topple Putin from power and end the killing in Ukraine.
On the other hand, Putin may be very weak right now but because of that, he is likely very unstable mentally and politically knowing his only chance of remaining alive now is remaining in power. Any escalation of supply efforts to Ukraine that levels the playing field could trigger a desperate escalation of numbers and lethality by Putin, triggering an actual inter-national war, killing hundreds of thousands or (gulp...) more.
There isn't any obvious correct strategy for solving this situation and halting this atrocity. It will be obvious a few years from now but not now. At the moment, the reality seems to be that Ukraine is stuck in a ring where it is forced to continue absorbing all of the blows from a crazed, heavyweight opponent. The rest of us look on, offering what aid we can but hoping along with Ukraine that the heavyweight will tire himself out and either wander out of the ring or expose a "tell" that allows Ukraine to land one blow that knocks Putin out with no chance to come off the canvas.
With all of the financial and military power we have, it is sickening to experience this type of powerlessness. Our leaders and the public should be contemplating this situation thoroughly and re-examining the value we get from trillions in defense spending that is incapable of being brought to bear in grossly asymmetrical situations like this.
WTH
