It appears a few things can be learned from the election results of 2023.
ONE -- Regardless of how red the state, abortion rights protections pass HANDILY. Voters WILL turn out if presented meaningful choices at the ballot box. Democrats would do well to initiate signature collections to put such initiatives in other states where abortion rights are at risk or already curtailed to reverse such measures. The votes ARE there. Voters WILL show up for this issue. This could help Democratic candidates in general.
TWO -- Voters WILL turn out if presented meaningful choices at the ballot box, they just won't tell pollsters about it. As the elections in Kentucky and Virginia illustrate, voters in states which are purple or red CAN recognize and reward Democratic candidates who focus on meaningful policies and demonstrate competence, humility and respect. In Kentucky, Andy Beshear won re-election 52/47. A five point margin in today's climate is a relative landslide. In Virginia, Democrats won back control of the House of Delegates (51/47) and retained control of the Senate (21/17). In Ohio, the measure adding abortion rights to the state Constitution passed 57/43. The Ohio result is probably the least surprising given that Ohio voters recently voted in similar numbers to reject a proposal that would have further tightened restrictions.
THREE -- The next year will be a real nail-biter. These November 2023 election results could be a fluke, a reflection of unique combinations of candidates, prior history and the weather. They could reflect fundamental flaws in polling processes that are over-representing the MAGA segment. It's hard to square how voters in Kentucky could calmly, rationally opt for a reasonable, competent, moderate candidate like Beshear for a state-wide office yet accept Trump for anything. Will that dynamic somehow reach a tipping point after multiple civil / criminal trials and suddenly break the fever? Or will it be strengthened? This is an unique exercise in mass political psychosis and I'm not sure the textbook has an answer in the back of the student or teacher edition.
WTH
