News outlets covered a major change in the state of Wisconsin regarding extreme gerrymandering and the balance of power between Republicans and Democrats. Wisconsin State Supreme Court rulings and considerable effort on the part of Democrats finally rolled back existing district maps that resulted in a roughly evenly divided state having nearly a two thirds majority of Republicans in both its Assembly and Senate as well as its US House delegation. The new maps for Wisconsin's 8 US Congressional districts, 99 State Assembly districts and 33 State Senate districts are now expected to have an even number of Republican versus Democratic leaning districts and about fourteen toss-ups at the State Assembly level. That reversion to a level playing field was hailed as a major win with huge impacts for the state and Congress.
Despite occasional wins like that, the march on democracy is still well underway across the country as Republicans attempt to cement non-representative states of existence in place in the face of coming demographic changes. One new tactic being adopted involves extending the effect of gerrymandering by applying district-level rules to statewide votes. In the Missouri Legislature, Senate Joint Resolution SJR 74 introduced by Republican Mary Elizabeth Coleman was approved by the Senate on February 20, 2024 and calls for an amendment to appear on the November 2024 general election ballot to alter existing constitutional rules for approving future constitutional amendments, whether originating in the Legislature, a constitutional convention or voter initiatives.
Here is a link to the resolution in its final Senate approved form as of February 21, 2024:
https://www.senate.mo.gov/24info/pdf-bill/perf/SJR74.pdfHere is the wording of the amendment intended for the November 2024 ballot:
Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to pass constitutional amendments proposed by initiative or convention by a statewide majority vote and a majority vote in a majority of congressional districts?
Already, there seems to be some confusion afoot about the bill because while the language references "congressional districts" which implies US House districts, press coverage of the JSR is mixed on US House versus Missouri House districts:
The Missouri Independent article references 82 districts and the KCUR article references 8 districts. Regardless of which district map is intended, both district maps are heavily gerrymandered in Missouri. At the US House level, current gerrymandering by the Republican super-majority in the Missouri House and Senate results in a six to two ratio (75%) of Republican to Democratic US Representatives in a state which is likely only 55 to 60 percent Republican.
Senate Republicans in Missouri are eager to get this amendment passed because multiple changes were added to the bill to further require that only state residents vote on constitutional amendments and ban foreign parties from "interfering" with the initiative process. Of course, both of those actions are already illegal under Missouri law. Inclusion of this language was intended to make the bill appear to be correcting huge flaws in current law that would short circuit voters' analysis of the core purpose of the bill, which was to make the process of statewide votes on constitutional amendments FAR less democratic. Democrats in the Senate filibustered the bill for 20 hours in order to at least jettison that noise from the wording of the proposed amendment.
What's driving Republican interest in adding these additional roadblocks for amending the state Constitution? Republicans are concerned that voters will submit and approve a constitutional amendment providing abortion access. Even in bright red Republican Missouri, Republicans are aware that support for abortion access likely has a clear majority across the entire state but Republicans have realized that, through the magic of gerrymandering, it is possible to devise arbitrarily complicated rules that can thwart the most basic of democratic, representative principals.
Republicans clearly understand how UN-democratic this rule will be. It's not a bug to them, it's absolutely a feature. From the Missouri Independent article above (bold emphasis added):
“This will change the way we actually campaign on these issues,” said Tim Jones, state director of the Missouri Freedom Caucus, the group of GOP senators who have demanded initiative petition changes in order to allow the chamber to function. “This to me is a very similar concept to the electoral college.”
The proposal is taking on new urgency for GOP leaders because a proposal to overturn Missouri’s abortion ban could be on the ballot in November. Republicans see changing the rules as the only way to defeat it.
Opponents claim the idea undermines majority rule, which has determined the outcome of constitutional questions in Missouri since 1846.
Ever since the Dodd decision overturned Roe vs Wade rights at the federal level and Missouri enacted its statewide abortion ban, Republicans have been working to eliminate any mechanism by which voters in the state could reinstate abortion rights via constitutional amendments. In 2023, Republicans drafted Joint Resolution 43 that initially attempted to raise the majority required for constitutional amendments from the current 50% to a two-thirds majority. That threshold was later lowered to 57% before the resolution lapsed at the end of the session and failed to reach a ballot.
It is likely that Missouri Republicans have learned from watching ballot initiatives in other red states. Even for non-sophisticated voters, a constitutional amendment raising the required majority from 50% to 66% looks like a drastic, desperate change, one many voters will likely reject on a ballot. But keeping a 50% majority rule while adding a secondary requirement that most voters cannot comprehend that in fact achieves the same goal? Well, that's a perfect Republican strategy. And it seems Republicans have done the math on these types of proposals. In the Missouri Independent article above, the outlet cites its internal analysis that found with this "concurrent majority" rule enacted, it is possible for only twenty percent of the entire voting population to block any amendment.
Who said Republicans were bad at math? They seem to excel at it when it is vital to suppressing majority rule and retaining power.
WTH
