Friday, June 05, 2026

The CBS Evening News with Byron Allen

Media in 2026 has been replete with stories of hiring decisions, firing decisions, content battles, cancellations, plummeting ratings and plain amateurish / incompetent execution of basic news groundwork. Reactions IN the media about these media stories actually pose their own concerns because those reactions frame the play-by-play in the context of assumptions about how media (news media in particular) SHOULD operate within a corporate / capitalistic framework and the goals of the owners of the corporations controlling them. The concern stems from the fact that few explain the assumptions being made and the arguable fact that none of those assumptions are remotely true in the current environment.


Golden Era Assumptions

News of conflict and failure at CBS seems to be arriving nearly continuously. Paramount offering a $16 million dollar settlement in a frivolous lawsuit filed by Trump against 60 Minutes editing of an interview as a carrot to gain approval to be bought by David Ellison and Skydance. CBS canceling its top-rated late night program claiming it was losing $40 million per year. CBS placing "independent media" op ed writer Bari Weiss in charge of the entire CBS News division. 60 Minutes delaying a story on illegal immigrant detention centers. Weiss pressuring 60 Minutes producers to adopt rules allowing story subjects to pick their preferred 60 Minutes anchor. CBS firing Sharon Alfonse. CBS firing Scott Pelley. CBS Evening News ratings tanking. Evening News anchor Tony Dekoupil having to report on Trump's May 2026 China trip from Taiwan because no one left on the Evening News staff knows how to arrange logistics for an overseas news trip. CBS shuttering its CBS Radio operation in place since 1927. Remaining 60 Minutes anchors huddling privately to discuss whether there's anything to return to in its next season.

As outsiders looking in on this chaos add play-by-play analysis, that analysis tends to fall into certain ruts based on a consistent set of assumptions about the actual goals of those in charge of CBS and CBS News in particular. Most commentary seems to focus on scoring the choice of tactic aimed at achieving goal X or the quality of the execution of that tactic towards goal X. Virtually no commentary is addressing the elephant in the room... Is X even still a goal for this company?

The assumptions driving how participants and critics frame these debates date from older nostalgic understandings of the balance of power between a "news" organization and any larger business parent happening to own that news organization. In hindsight, this nostalgic understanding of the way things use to operate was never 100% true even in the good old days. Most definitely, those assumptions are demonstrably false in the current environment.

What are the assumptions being made?

  • News organizations inside corporate entities still enjoy a magical protective bubble stemming from a quaint sense of noblesse oblige on the part of executives. This bubble somehow ensures story selection and editing will never be tainted by crass concerns about profits or fears of offending powerful business, political or social figures. Those running the news would always know what the right thing to do was and would always have the freedom to do it.
  • Corporate owners of media outlets are noble enough to view the cost of news operations as a "loss leader" or a means of burnishing a larger corporate image that provides value beyond the bottom line of the news organization on its own profit and loss statement.
  • News organizations should strive to be defensibly non-partisan, providing timely information on events of equal importance on any side of a contested topic.
  • Even if topic selection and content editing won't be purely unbiased in any particular direction, it will still be predominately fact-based.
  • When conflicts arise between mere business interests and news interests, news interests should take priority.
  • Business decisions about entertainment content do not have to be proactively "balanced" according to some perceived scale of bias. If a show captures viewers that seems to be positioned at point 0.25 on the 0 to 1 scale, the media owner isn't required to air a program with content positioned at 0.75 to "balance" out the first. If they can find such a program and viewers tune it in, they can certainly air the program but they're not REQUIRED to air it.

The reality is that these assumptions are not only demonstrably false in the context of CBS and its new parent conglomerate, these assumptions are no longer true for any large media outlet. It is ipso facto the case that any large media conglomerate that includes "news" entities within it is already tainted by the forces applied by boards and shareholders on any sufficiently large corporation.

In December of 2024, ABC settled a "defamation" lawsuit filed by Donald Trump the citizen in March 2024 that no legal expert in the country thought required settling prior to trial. Why? Because Trump won the 2024 election and Disney -- ABC's owner -- didn't want to start off the next four years on the new President's shit list.

Comcast sold off a variety of cable channels including MSNBC and CNBC, in part because viewership has shrunk in lockstep with cable-cutting of all video subscribers in cable / satellite TV. However, MSNBC and CNBC had relatively good viewership in sought-after demographics but it seems apparent Comcast felt those economics weren't worth the cost of content on MSNBC generating daily threats of retribution against Comcast's larger interests from a thin-skinned President.


Who's Paying Whom?

The programming strategy behind the elimination of The Late Show With Steven Colbert and replacing it with the Byron Allen show Comics Unleashed demonstrates many of the dynamics at work with "media" in general and "linear television" in particular at this point in time. (Linear television refers to programming delivered to viewers at a fixed schedule rather than "on demand" as saved content that can be played / paused / rewound / fast-forwarded / skipped as part of its core delivery experience).

Not all programming appearing on linear television channels is produced and distributed with the same financial goals. Think back to NBC content in the 1980s and 1990s. For nearly twenty years, NBC succeeded at identifying and contracting with a series of creators who delivered sit-com and drama content such as Cheers, Seinfeld, ER, Friends, Frasier, Mad About You, The West Wing, etc. that triggered a virtuous circle of wealth for all involved:

  • NBC paid good money to a writer / producer for a concept and show scripts and the production of the show
  • the content won an audience and advertisers clamored to reach that audience by paying NBC more money for ad slots
  • NBC made more money allowing more speculation on more writers / producers to find the next hit show
  • NBC could schedule new shows after existing hits to accelerate the adoption cycle for new shows, making them the next big hit
  • many viewers got to the point where the consistency in programming became its own brand ("Must See TV" on Thursdays), further helping viewership and lead-in ad revenue at local stations before and after prime-time blocks

Did NBC itself create these shows or own them? No. Paramount produced Cheers and Frasier. Sony produced Seinfeld and Mad About You. Warner Brothers produced ER, Friends and The West Wing. NBC owned time slots during these shows and made its money by paying the creator $X million for the right to air the show on its first runs for Y years prior to syndication while collecting substantially more than $X million in ad revenue, turning a profit.

When most people think of how "television" works as a business, that's the model they imagine at work.

But that's not the only way content makes onto a television channel (either broadcast or cable). The opposite extreme is easiest to explain by thinking of your local television station and your local creepy Christian mega-church pastor. For some communities too small to sustain the appetite of a local holy roller, think of some of the national charlatans like Jim Bakker, Robert Schuller or Joel Osteen, who did / do the same thing across multiple markets. What do they do?

They buy ALL of the ad slots within a given time slot from a local television station (typically outside of prime time hours - often early Sunday mornings). Rather than the station having to find content and pay for it for that time slot, the "church" provides the content. The "church" pays for all of the production costs. The local station just connects VIDEO IN from the megachurch to SIGNAL OUT and collects the money. The station really doesn't CARE if anyone watches. At most, the only thing the local station cares about is that the content delivered by the "church" isn't SO blatantly offensive to local mores that the content triggers viewers to avoid OTHER shows the station airs that WOULD reduce the ad revenue collected from other local businesses selling Chevrolets and appliances. (This model is also popular with sub-prime used car dealers.)

Until the last ten or twenty years of media consolidation, it would have been safe to say that no local station SOUGHT OUT a local mega-church or even a more traditional church and actively ASKED to place video crews to record services and broadcast them on local TV, either as a money-making ploy or as "public interest" programming for the local community. It would have been a safe bet to assume every one of these arrangements involved the church buying the time slot entirely and incurring all of the live production costs as means of getting its message out.

In the last ten or twenty years of media consolidation, it is possible that some of these conglomerates such as NextStar (owner of more than 200 stations), Gray Media (owner of 113 stations) and Sinclair Broadcaster (owner of 193 stations) might find philosophical synergy with mega-church content and might apply some pressure to local properties to cut deals to air such shows, altering the financial balance somewhat. It's definitely already the case that some of these conglomerates (Sinclair specifically) supply pre-recorded "must-run" content to local properties who air them during local newscasts. These segments are structured and produced to meld with regular reports but present grossly distorted explanations of basic political and constitutional principles.

What's new in the last year is that this "mega-church" production model to provide content to fill a time slot and increase profits for stations is now being adopted by the networks directly. The change at CBS to dump Steven Colbert for Comics Unleashed is the first notable example. The show Comics Unleashed is produced by Allen Media Group, a parent company owned by Byron Allen, who many might remember as one of a collection of hosts on NBC's Real People show of the late 1970s. The show WAS popular... Initially... The show lasted five years then tanked, leaving only a memory of what most people today view as quintessential bad 1970s television. Right up there with the infamous "Roller Disco" episode of CHiPs.

Byron Allen moved onto other ventures, starting with a concept of reselling celebrity interviews collected during press junkets for new movies, a concept which had only been adopted by a few hundred DJs at radio stations across the country who attended the same junkets to create "content" to fill morning drive-time on the radio. The content was completely generic and low quality but cheap to produce.

Most radio stations and TV stations abandoned the "celebrity gravy train" model for "content" by the early 2000s but Allen created the Comics Unleashed program in 2006 using the same formula:

  • The "talent" that appears is typically only paid union scale wages -- about $1000 currently
  • Talent that appears is NOT paid any residual or royalty for subsequent airings of their appearance, which are frequent and may continue appearing for years, potentially dulling the comedian's reputation with new fans
  • The comics bring their own material so there's little if any fixed expense for staff writers
  • Single-set physical logistics with common camera views -- little reliance on camera operators and editors for "live" production, everything is edited and assembled into a final form after the fact, days ahead of airing, further lowering production costs

The Comics Unleashed show is a perfect example of this low-cost, assembly-line "content" model. Most current CBS viewers might have assumed that Byron Allen would be delivering NEW episodes of Comics Unleashed after taking over the Late Show slot. Not exactly. Allen is expected to product 132 new half-hour episodes the first year (enough for 50% of the weekdays per year) and the second half-hour will re-run old shows recorded between 2006 and 2016. It's not clear if production will ramp up to provide more new content in coming periods.

That's essentially saying only twenty five percent of the content airing in that weekday hour-long time slot will be "new." But few willing to watch will likely notice any difference between the "old" and "new" because a key tenet of the content generation model for Comics Unleashed is to avoid ANYTHING remotely current in the material. This approach has the obvious benefit of increasing the shelf life of the content produced but in the current environment, that has the additional benefit of assuring any content won't touch on anything controversial that might offend the corporation owning the network or those it is trying to suck up to.

Byron Allen's larger conglomerate Allen Media Group owns a collection of cable / satellite TV channels all following a similar model: The Weather Channel, Comedy TV, Cars TV, Pets TV, Justice Central, etc. Either limited production costs with a very unchanging format (weather) or recycled content from other sources "curated" into "fresh content" merely by being lumped together with an airtime schedule. And this type of content is seen by viewers for exactly what it is -- completely bland, forgettable content that kills brain cells through mere contact.

The fact that this content provides little draw to customers to continue cable or satellite subscriptions is very evident to those providers which is why they have been unwilling to pay large premiums to carry the channels. Allen actually leveraged that against Comcast and Charter by suing them for racial discrimination and violation of the Civil Rights Law of 1866 by "refusing to make contracts" with his firm because Allen is African American. (Nooooo... we're unwilling to pay $X per subscriber to carry your channels when we have exact viewership data showing a tenth of a percentage point of our subscribers WATCH these channels when we carry them...) The suits were filed in 2015 and went all the way to the US Supreme Court which tossed out his case in 2020 with a rare, unanimous 9-0 decision. Allen later settled the suits privately with each provider agreeing to continue carrying some mix of his channels for undisclosed amounts.


Late Show Production Economics

If you believe comments from CBS used to justify their cancellation of Steven Colbert's show and the selection of Comics Unleashed to replace it, the economics of Allen's business model seem to make a decision to ditch Colbert obvious. CBS claims yearly production costs for Colbert resulted in a net loss to CBS of roughly $40 million per year. In contrast, because Allen is buying up the air time and producing the show on his own dime, CBS zeros out all production costs and collects about $15 million from Allen, producing a "swing" of $55 million from a $40 million loss to a $15 million profit.

These numbers tossed out by CBS seem, to say the least, quite suspect. Colbert's most recent contract paid him $15 million per year. CBS claimed yearly ad revenue for the show was around $60 to $70 million (down from $120 million earlier in the run). To lose $40 million per year, that would require production costs of nearly $100 million, which, after Colbert's $15 million salary, leaves $85 million for the 200 staffers collectively -- an average salary of $425,000. Clearly, camera operators, gaffers, ushers, teamsters working the stage, etc. were not making $425,000 yearly so this is not an accurate means of reverse engineering the real labor costs. Even the writers likely capped out around $200,000 plus additional pay for on-air skits, etc. Guests are likely comped with luxury hotels and transportation so with 2 "couch guests" and a musical guest with four band mebers per night for 162 shows per year, the lodging alone comes to about $583,000 -- a pretty inconsequential cost in the big picture.

CBS purchased the Ed Sullivan Theater in 1993 for about $4 million and spent about $4.5 million renovating it for the Letterman era. One can image renovation costs in 2015 were three times that or roughly $13 million. CBS also captured a tax abatement of $5 million from New York City to keep the show in the city. One would assume CBS leased the space to Colbert's production company so real estate costs are already factored into this $100 million paid to his production company.

Of course, missing in discussions of the profitability of Colbert's Late Show or its equivalents is any mention of the obvious purpose of these shows to begin with. They are NOT intended as a means of paying a handsome raconteur to entertain the masses. If that happens, that's okay but that is NOT the goal. They are not necessarily required to turn a profit on their own, though if that happens, that's a plus. These shows have existed from their inception in the 1960s as promotional vehicles to use in flogging the latest offerings from TV networks, movie studios and publishing houses. As long as these shows are pulling in three million viewers per show, that's three million consumers seeing promos for upcoming movies, albums and books with ownership stakes benefiting...? These same corporate owners. None of those intra-corporate revenue synergies are being reflected in the suspect accounting of the "profits" from these shows.


So What's Missing in the Analysis?

So if all of the old assumptions about how news operations should operate are false, how does it affect coverage of the latest strife? As an example, one theme in stories about CBS News is that Bari Weiss is the WORST person who could have been selected to run the organization, even if one is willing to concede CBS News had issues and needed to change. This line of thought identifies these problems:

  • Weiss' only experience is as an individual reporter and op-ed writer, not an editor or TV production executive or "line of business" executive.
  • Weiss' choice of "stars" may actually drive current viewers away, hastening the collapse in ratings.
  • Weiss' pursuit of more conservative content to appear on CBS outlets won't attract loyal conservative viewers of more right-wing channels.

All of these stated concerns about Weiss' tenure to date all assume the goals of operating a news organization and consistently airing "fair" content still remain. None of these assumptions can be proven with certainty at CBS. It's not clear they can be proven with certainty at Comcast for NBC or Disney for ABC. These corporate owners may not feel ANY obligation to keep a news organization running. Unlike local licensing rules for broadcasters, there are no FCC mandates applied to national network operators to provide recurring news shows.

The takeaway is that the current corporate owners of top "news" organizations in the United States respect no boundaries between editorial decisions within news teams and corporate financial goals. If executives conclude it will improve profits over the next three years to replace an independent news organization with pre-fab content assembled by 20-somethings who learned how to use DaVinci Resolve while running a YouTube channel but know nothing about history, economics, science or civics, they will do it in a heartbeat, even if the country loses all visibility into what the government and courts are conspiring to do to surrender control of society to our oligarchs. There is no assurance that The CBS Evening News with Byron Allen or something very similar to that model isn't already being pitched to executives at Paramount (or Comcast or Disney).

If there's no FCC mandate at the network level to produce and air recurring news shows on a daily basis, what's to stop existing national networks from abandoning such efforts? Absolutely nothing other than habit and unverified, unspoken assumptions that such an alternate universe somehow cannot exist. Such a universe absolutely CAN exist. The difference between a world with a thirty minute The CBS Evening News with Walter Cronkite show existing and a world with The CBS Evening News with Byron Allen or a world with no CBS news at all is the difference between having a William Paley at the helm versus David Ellison. Paley did not enjoy a perfect record on his journalistic independence scorecard but his overall management arc yielded "the Tiffany Network." Ellison in contrast has arguably trashed any semblance of that network still standing in a matter of months, and not by accident.


WTH

Thursday, May 21, 2026

Fender - The Latest Quintessentially American Company

Amid all the other troubles of the world in 2026, a corporate battle over branding, pricing and manufacturing strategy in the realm of musical instruments barely registers as a blip on the radar, even with hundreds of millions of dollars involved. However, a legal skirmish between American instrument maker Fender and a Chinese firm no one has heard of named Yiwu Philharmonic Instruments ("Yiwu") recently morphed into what can only be described as an insane, scorched earth, pre-emptive attack by Fender against a large portion of the entire guitar industry.

Analzying this case involving Fender is useful because the competitive wind shear triggering Fender's altered flight plan affect any company operating globally while attempting to balance seemingly contradictory demands on its strategy:

  • balancing an iconic product history and traditionalism against a need to innovate
  • reducing labor costs while maintaining or raising quality
  • protecting legitimate intellectual property across hundreds of countries
  • adjusting product and selling strategies in a potentially shrinking global market

Fender's recent actions also illustrate problems management teams routinely encounter learning from prior failures -- both internal failures and those of competitors. More broadly, Fender's strategy decisions illustrate how firms expecting to leverage a long-standing brand and "legacy" to squeeze ever wider profit margins from its own dealers and customers can find that brand utterly destroyed worldwide nearly instantly, eliminating the very foundation of the firm's poorly considered strategy and accelerating its decline. The errors recently committed by Fender aren't unique to Fender in business history but they perfectly epitomize a pattern of management "own goals" characteristic of big corporations in general and American firms in particular. For that reason, Fender might be the quintessential American company right now. In every negative sense of the word.


A Disclaimer

Your humble obedient scrivener, WTH, is absolutely NOT a neutral observer regarding the events about to be discussed. In a collection of thirteen guitars and five amplifiers dating back to 1982, three are genuine Fender Stratocaster models (a 1992 Strat Plus, a 2008 Highway One Stratocaster and a 2025 Ritchie Kotzen Japanese-made Stratocaster) and one of the amps is a 2020 Fender Deluxe Reverb. A fourth guitar is a "strat style" 1984 Ibanez Roadstar II which was made in Japan and is of very high quality despite being an entry level model.

The rest of the collection includes a 1986 Gibson Les Paul Studio, a 2004 Gibson ES-335, a 2016 Epiphone Les Paul copy (licensed to Epiphone by Gibson) and a 2004 tele-style guitar custom made by Gerard Melancon. Fender gear of all types has been a favorite since I started playing, even when prices didn't fit the available budget. Since all of my Fender guitar purchases came after Fender's exit from CBS in 1986, my experiences with Fender quality have been consistently good.

I'm also very familiar with the engineering and business history of Fender as originally run by Leo Fender and its subsequent ownership periods under CBS from 1965 to 1985 and under Bill Schulz and team from 1986 until recently. When talking world history and politics, I routinely make a point with only mild exaggeration that Leo Fender might be more responsible for laying the seeds for the destruction of the Soviet Union and spreading democracy worldwide than any other single person in history. Why? Because the invention of the Telecaster, the Bassman amplifier, the Stratocaster and the Precision Bass did more to foster what became American popular music that took over the world than any other single artist or politician or public figure. American popular music served as a subtle but constant signal to people worldwide that if your government insists this MUSIC is a threat to your nation and life, perhaps there are other internal problems limiting the availability of bread on the shelves or coats for your children for the upcoming winter. You might want to rethink your form of government. Your problems lie within, not with America and certainly not with music.

All of that serves to underline the fact that I not only like "strat style" guitars, I like Stratocaster guitars made by Fender in particular and from a business, ethical and musical / emotional perspective, I am highly predisposed to being in support of Fender in legitimate efforts to protect their product lines.


Key Terms -- Strat-Style versus Strat Clone

The core issue involved in this business matter is tightly bound to a pair of key terms used in the context of guitar making. In the electric guitar market, the Gibson Les Paul design and Fender Telecaster and Fender Stratocaster are the three most predominate physical designs implemented in terms of unique designs and in total sales volume. Since their original inception in the 1950s, the physical designs were copied by "lesser" manufacturers, triggering numerous lawsuits within the US and internationally in attempts by Gibson and Fender to prevent other makers from "ripping off" these big three classic designs.

Without rehashing the entire court case history and legal thinking behind the outcomes, in general the guitar universe seems to have settled into a mode where three criteria dictate what is allowed and what triggers legal actions -- body shape, headstock shape and actual brand name, model name and iconography / typography of the branding. Other makers can copy the BODY SHAPE of the "original" but the HEADSTOCK shape must be visually distinct from the original and the BRANDING / NAMING obviously cannot mimic "Gibson" or "Fender" or the "Les Paul" or "Telecaster / Stratocaster" names or their styling / font. As an example, compare three different legit Fender Stratocaster headstock designs and branding alongside that of an Ibanez strat-style guitar.

Given the terms of this uneasy legal "truce", guitars meeting the terms of this truce are typically referred to as ___-style guitars ("strat style" or "tele style" or "LP style"). In contrast, instruments that are being made to fraudulently look like the original down to the headstock and logo / branding are generally referred to as "clones" with "clones" being interpreted in a very pejorative sense. In some sense, "clones" should probably be referred to as "counterfeit" because when the maker is attempting to fake the headstock, logo and even serial numbers, there is clear potential for that guitar to eventually serve a role in a transaction where the buyer is paying for what they think is an authentic unit and the seller is pocketing undue profit from that fakery.


Fender's Corporate History

The Fender brand has been a stable part of American music and industry since its inception in the 1940s but its actual ownership and financial position have varied considerably over its lifetime. The key milestones are summarized here:

  • 1938 - Leo Fender opens Fender Radio Service with his wife in Fullerton, California
  • 1945 - Leo Fender forms a second company with a partner to sell build-it-yourself Hawaiian steel guitar kits
  • 1946 - Leo Fender sells off his radio repair business and renames the remaining company Fender Musical Instrument Company
  • 1950 -- Leo Fender designs a single-pickup solid-body guitar named the Esquire, quickly follows it up with a two-pickup model originally called the Broadcaster only to immediately rename it the Telecaster after a trademark dispute with Gretsch over the Broadcaster name
  • 1951 -- Leo Fender uses concepts from the Telecaster to design a similar electric bass guitar, calling it the Precision Bass for the frets that allowed bass players to get precise intonation on every note, unlike stand-up acoustic basses
  • 1954 -- Leo Fender uses feedback from musicians regarding the Telecaster to devise a more comfortable body shape with cut-outs that made it comfortable to play sitting down and a more flexible 3-way pickup arrangement -- this altered body shape with three single-coil pickups is sold as the Stratocaster.
  • 1965 - Leo Fender and George Fulllerton sell Fender Musical Instruments to the conglomerate CBS (yes, that CBS) -- Leo and George sign non-compete clauses for at least two years
  • 1971 -- Leo Fender begins working for another firm that became Music Man and designed new instruments similar to the Stratocaster and Precision Bass but with improved electronics and subtly altered physical styling
  • 1975 -- Leo Fender becomes President of Music Man and works there until 1981
  • 1981 -- Leo Fender creates a new company G&L Guitars with former partners from Fender and continues designing and selling guitars and basses until his death in 1991
  • 1985 -- CBS sells control of Fender Musical Instruments to a group of private investors led by Bill Schultz and Dan Smith who shutter American manufacturing operations for nearly a year for retooling, relying upon cash flow from Fender gear made in Japan until American plant operations could be resumed
  • 2001 -- controlling interest in Fender purchased by private equity firm Weston Presidio
  • 2012 -- Fender attempts an IPO that would have allowed Weston Presidio to cash out nearly one third of the company's value but the IPO is withdrawn due to poor market conditions and Weston Presidio instead sells its stake to private equity firm Servco
  • 2020 -- existing owner Servco acquires majority control
  • 2025 -- Servco buys online music gear reselling website Reverb
  • 2025 -- Fender purchases the intellectual property and physical assets of G&L Guitars

A few highlights are important to mention in parallel with this corporate history. First, every alteration to the design of the Stratocaster body and electronics was based on continual feedback Leo Fender solicited from professional musicians who used the instruments. The design choices didn't emerge from an internally sourced burst of artistic inspiration from Leo Fender. He was an engineer with manufacturing skills and the sense to listen to customers. Second, Leo Fender never attempted to protect the body styles of Fender instruments with patents, trademarks and certainly not copyright claims. Fender only attempted to trademark the headstock designs.


Fender's Initial Legal Tactics

In 2025, Fender's operating entity in Germany filed a civil lawsuit in a state court located in Dusseldorf against a Chinese firm named Yiwu Philharmonic Instruments. The suit alleged Yiwu was violating Fender intellectual property rights regarding the Stratocaster by duplicating the Stratocaster's body shape. Fender's suit called for an immediate halt of all manufacturing and sale of such guitars by Yiwu within Germany and throughout the European Union. The defendant failed to appear in the German court during the proceedings and in March of 2026, the German court issued a default judgment in favor of Fender. The court ruling reiterated the claims Fender made that the Stratocaster body is a "work of art" subject to protection under COPYRIGHT law.

Frankly, this initial ruling in a German court didn't generate a great deal of attention in the United States for one key reason. Protections for guitar designs duplicating the Stratocaster were adjudicated in American courts as recently as 2008 and Fender LOST that case, cementing apparent protections for other firms to MAKE "strat-style" guitars within the United States and SELL them within the United States.

However, beginning on May 11, 2026, the German law firm Bird & Bird acting on behalf of Fender began mailing formal cease and desist letters to DOZENS of manufacturers and retailers, referencing "copyright infringement of the Stratocaster body shape" with the following demands:

  • stop manufacturing the instruments immediately
  • stop selling any existing instruments immediately
  • destroy any existing instruments in your inventory
  • claw back any existing instruments sold to retailers and destroy those as well

These letters weren't just mailed to Yiwu the unresponsive defendant nor solely to firms making or distributing guitars WITHIN the European Union. They were sent to presumably dozens of firms making and selling guitars within the United States, reminding them that selling such instruments into the EU would violate the terms of this German court ruling and subject said firms to legal action.

Fender's legal strategy reflects poorly upon its operations and brand management strategies in many, many ways. Before delving into those areas, a few immediate legal considerations should be addressed first, in part because these considerations magnify the scale of the leadership failures to be discussed later.

First, the case in the Dusseldorf regional court was not contested by the defendant. The Chinese firm decided it made more economic sense for them to simply ignore the proceeding, fold shop and move on. This may complicate Fender's ability to collect DAMAGES from the alleged infringement but it certainly achieves Fender's immediate goal of halting production of competing instruments by that maker. HOWEVER, because the case was not contested, Fender did not have to defend its claims and the legal basis behind them of using COPYRIGHT as a means of protecting intellectual property primarily originating from functional design considerations. It isn't clear what obligation German courts have to consider the defendant side of a case when the defendant doesn't appear. Philosophically, it isn't a court's job to merely pick a winner in a case, it is the court's duty to reach a decision which reflects the "right" answer based upon common understanding of the law and precedent. This is more difficult to do when the defendant fails to appear.

Another point raised by some commentators who understand German law and EU law is that the concept of stare decisis (binding precedent) is not as rigidly applied in EU courts as in American courts. Courts still certainly attempt to avoid significant swings back and forth between different courts over cases involving similar facts but it is not treated as high in priority as a driver of decisions as in American courts. What this really means in this default judgment in the Fender case is that it reflects no precedent at all. The lasting impact of this ruling won't be established until the issue is actively contested with a real defendant who shows up with a talented legal team and tests the ruling and pursues appeals as needed.

So the issue wasn't really actively contested, the original lawsuit made dubious claims that seem to conflict with prior cases in multiple legal jurisdictions and it only has "teeth" within the European Union. Why is Fender attempting to use the ruling to go into full attack mode against makers and sellers everywhere? That's where a more philosophical review of Fender's competitive situation and implications for the larger competitive environment worldwide come into play.


What Is the Market Here?

On paper, it would appear at first that Fender's lawsuit in Germany targeted a single company Fender accused of making "strat clones" (remember the prior terminology - "clones" are identically shaped instruments with exact replica headstocks and often fake brand names and model names on the guitar). For this scenario, Fender's suit would seem perfectly justifiable. The maker is literally making EXACT CLONES which could likely be used as counterfeits aimed at collecting full price from ignorant buyers who cannot inspect an instrument first-hand before buying.

However, a search of the AliExpress and Temu web sites where many of these guitars are sold shows that the vast majority of guitars listed have a DISTINCT headstock shape and many have NO LOGO of any kind written on the headstock. Listing descriptions will reference "s-style" or "t-style" or "LP style" but NONE that I saw referenced "Gibson" or "Fender" or "Les Paul" or "Stratocaster" explicitly. And the prices on these guitars range from $65 to about $250 US dollars. I was able to find ONE listing on Aliexpress that showed a "strat style" guitar whose image gallery did actually show a Fender shaped headstock and the Fender logo on the headstock and on the neck-plate on the back of the guitar. Clear violations making legal action in that case one hundred percent legitimate. In general though, these are not "clones" or counterfeit instruments attempting to pass as Fender Stratocasters and Telecasters. They are just REALLY inexpensive "strat style" or "tele style" or "LP style" instruments.

So if the accoutrements of the instruments are explicitly NOT matching the originals and the price points are so obviously low that no one is attempting to sell them as counterfeits for $1000 and up instruments from the original makers, what are these knock-offs for and who is buying them? Obviously, the primary market for these inexpensive instruments are new players who haven't gotten past the initial 6-12 months to know they will pursue playing. The quality and playability may not meet a serious player's needs and "touch" after a couple of years but these instruments are certainly capable of getting a novice through the first year or two.

Guitarists with years of playing also find value in these inexpensive instruments. These can be taken in a gig bag on a plane or hauled around in the family truckster on vacation and treated as nearly a throwaway rather than risking a $2000 instrument to an airline or theft. Experienced players also like having some inexpensive guitars around to experiment with different pickup combinations and electronics changes without damaging a more expensive guitar. And often, guitarists just want to have a few one-off instruments for a single sound on a favorite song or they want a few instruments that look like those played by favorite artists with a particular finish or paint job. Come on, sometimes, they're just cool to look at, right?

This is where past brand history, current market dynamics, international law and global trade and politics all intersect to form an existential challenge to Fender.


Fender's Evolving Business and Legal Strategy

In a nutshell, Fender's existential problem is that its existing business model is being drawn and quartered along at least four conflicting axes by customer demands, capital versus labor trade-offs, dealer versus direct sales and intellectual property protections for innovations in world markets.

Tradition Versus Innovation

Fender's customer base is roughly equally split between buyers nostalgic for instruments matching the original design evolutions of the 1950s and 1960s and "signature models" of famous artists versus buyers interested in new pickup electronics and tweaks to body contours and knob / control locations to improve playability and comfort. In the larger scheme of product management challenges, these differences aren't as great as trying to build large pickup trucks and small BEV commuter cars on the same assembly line but offering dozens (hundreds) of minor choices inflates SKU (stock keeping unit) counts in supply chains, manufacturing inventory and dealer inventories, inflating costs at each level. Even if Fender could pull that off, attempting to sell to such divergent camps can actually dilute the brand being pitched to each camp. Those wanting "traditional" instruments might get turned off seeing the Fender logo on a neon-colored, funky shaped guitar aimed at metal players while those same metal players might pidgeonhole Fender as the firm still cranking out millions of stale sunburst relics played by 70-year olds past their prime.


Capital Versus Labor

Leo Fender was innovative in product design and similarly innovative in manufacturing process design but Fender the company has struggled throughout its history to allocate sufficient capital to meet demand, lower labor input and improve quality and consistency. As demand surged in the early 1960s, the firm didn't stop to retool significantly and was still using virtually every piece of equipment from the early 1950s. After CBS took control in 1965, it was focused on extracting more profit, not revamping tooling so quality declined nearly continuously through the 1970s. In the 1980s, Fender closed its American plant on TWO different occasions to rely upon manufacturing in Japan while it tried to retool in America and build a plant in Mexico for more export production. Equipment at its Corona, CA and Ensenada, Mexico plant is certainly "newer" but still involves nearly 200 individual people performing manual steps from painting, fret insertion, pickup and electronics placement, etc. That level of manual work magnifies wage rate differences and drastically inflates the number of points at which process variability can become a quality problem.


Dealer Versus Direct

Until roughly 2000, most guitars were sold through dealers which kept a baseline inventory across multiple brands and price points to allow customers to try instruments first hand. In large part because of inconsistent quality, store sales were preferred by customers as a means of avoiding buying a "dud." With the advent of online commerce, sites such as Musician's Friend and Sweetwater began capturing sales with lower prices. Customers still had to make a tradeoff between a lower online price (and greater availability of different colors and models) and quality concerns from buying something without physically seeing it but sales volumes moved in this direction in part because online sellers began including "pre-checks" on every guitar, acting as a final Quality Assurance step for manufacturers to prevent obvious problems from reaching a customer.

Gibson and Fender both noted the increase in online sales and -- on slightly different timelines -- both began efforts to offer gear directly on their own site at "suggested retail prices." Both seemed to realize that actively discounting gear on their own site would not only devalue their own brand but piss off dealers who couldn't afford to carry the breadth of price points and finishes the maker could sell directly online from the factory. However, this strategy still failed to recognize the entirety of their operating environment.

Remember that merchants who succeeded at selling large volumes of guitars online did so in part by implementing additional quality checks to look for bad fret work, dysfunctional electronics, obvious finish flaws, etc. These inspections are normally performed by every dealer before putting an instrument on the store floor so the online sellers merely duplicated that required step. But where were those flawed instruments coming from? The same factories that were now going to ship them directly to customers WITHOUT an independent quality assurance check. Selling direct still pissed off many dealers but also exposed a much larger share of the maker's quality issues directly to consumers without appropriate channels to handle that repair work.

One additional anecdote is worth mentioning in this dimension of strategy problems. Around 2022, Fender began HEAVILY promoting something it called the "mod shop" which was an online ordering process that gave buyers the ability to assemble a "custom" instrument by picking among a predefined set of choices involving body style, body finish, fingerboard, tuners, pick guard style, etc. At first, this seemed like a great way to leverage e-commerce capabilities to let the customer get exactly what they wanted without having to PREDICT customer wants and incur inventory costs for rarely requested choices. However, it became clear based upon the specific options that were available that the process was designed to allow Fender to mix and match parts that were originally made for specific combinations of inventory models but were flagged with defects, requiring a body to be junked while putting the neck back in inventory, etc. In essence, the "mod shop" was an attempt to minimize sunk costs from higher defect rates generated while trying to keep up with a temporary spike in demand as sales spiked during COVID.


Affordability and Demand by Generation

Every maker of musical gear -- not just Fender -- is facing a common market challenge that stems from generational changes in demand for gear AT ANY PRICE along with acute affordability problems for younger customers. Since the advent of PC and console based video games, the share of disposable income spent on recorded music has plummeted while the share spent on game software and hardware to play it has taken over most of that spending. This shift has caused interest in playing musical instruments to plummet as well (lowering total demand at any price) and left the potential buyers remaining with less money to spend on instruments.

At the same time, buyers who first started playing instruments thirty plus years ago and still dabble with playing are older, have vastly more disposable income and are willing to spend it on higher end instruments. Makers facing this generationally split demand curve must answer some crucial questions:

  • how much capacity should be devoted to entry and mid-level models versus high end models?
  • exactly how much can we raise prices and extract premiums from the affluent buyers
  • exactly how much can we cut costs on entry models without diluting the brand that is still attracting the affluent customers?
  • is it possible to cede the entry level market to lower-margin players and capture customers later when they have more income to afford our premium models?
  • how can we satisfy affluent owners who say they want "hand-crafted" instruments while competing against makers who adopt newer tooling that reduces cost 30-50 percent?

The guitar segment of the musical industry did experience one period of market stress that seemed particularly focused on guitar demand during COVID. With millions of people stuck working at home worldwide for extended periods with no idea how long it would last, hundreds of thousands decided to take up a new hobby to minimize domestic strife and a huge share of this population took up guitar or resurrected a prior dormant guitar-playing hobby. This generated a HUGE square wave spike in demand across nearly EVERY maker. This required those makers to choose a strategy:

  • ramp up production immediately via overtime to meet demand at current prices?
  • raise prices to extract more money from those willing to pay amid shortages?
  • ramp up production via new plant capacity to satisfy a permanent increase in demand?
  • raise prices in the short term based on demand but hold off on adding capacity?

Fender for one seems to have assumed that demand for Fender gear would enjoy a permanent upward bump. Prices went up beyond expected "COVID inflation" because of demand and Fender released what seems like dozens of new models of guitars which lacked any material innovations. This choice was puzzling even at the time in light of the prior well understood trend of entertainment spending patterns among teens and 20-somethings. Business followers of the music industry were already discussing the sagging prospects of any musical instrument maker in a world where fewer kids have formal music education in school and fewer parents can afford instruments and lessons in the home. Now, with a worldwide pandemic and sudden change in work / home entertainment choices, Fender assumed a DECADES long trend was suddenly reversed? Permanently?


Intellectual Property Protection in a Globalized, Digital World

Before addressing the core of Fender's recent actions, a summary of tools for protecting intellectual property and branding is required to provide context for how desperate Fender's strategy is. There are four key strategies firms can pursue to protect intellectual property underpinning a business and prevent competitors from trading on a company's established reputation and stealing profits.

Trade Secrets -- If a firm has know-how that provides a competitive advantage that can safely be included in the product without being divulged, simply retaining that know-how internally and preventing it from being discovered allows a firm to leverage that know-how in perpetuity -- for as long as the trade secret can be kept. Trade secrets were commonly used for ingredients (KFC recipe? Coca Cola syrup formula?) or manufacturing processes but in more modern times, trade secrets are more risky as an intellectual property protection approach because advances in chemistry and physics make it easier to reverse engineer ingredients and formulas and modern cameras make it more difficult to keep proprietary machinery and processes from outside spies. In modern times, trade secrets for manufacturing are virtually IMPOSSIBLE to keep, especially when a firm outsources its manufacturing to another firm which makes competing products under the same roof.

Patents -- A firm that devises a new product or process which is highly valuable but is difficult to physically hide from competitors will often attempt to file for patent protection to maximize the economic value of the product or process. Filing the patent requires divulging the idea in its entirety but if granted, the patent provides the holder EXCLUSIVE rights to leverage the patent for commercial purposes for seventeen years. During that period, the holder can license a right to use the patented design or process for whatever price they can negotiate from whoever they choose. Patents are the only viable approach for protecting intellectual property which cannot be successfully hidden but require material expenses for legal filings and subsequent infringement charges against parties suspected of violating the patent. Patents also pose a key challenge to inventors applying for them. To grant a patent for an idea, the idea must satisfy four key criteria: 1) it must involve matters subject to patent protection (process, a machine, a material composition), 2) it must provide a specific, credible real-world use, 3) it must reflect a unique idea that is non-obvious to someone skilled in the art, 4) the application must describe at least one specific physical implementation of the idea.

Trademarks / Service Marks -- Trademarks and service marks don't protect specific product implementations, functionality or processes but instead protect the NAME used by a firm to identify their product / service in the marketplace for communication with customers. Adoption of a trademark simplifies how firms identify their products to customers and helps customers ensure that when they see marketing communication about the trademarked product "Happy Fun Ball" from "Sirius Cybernetics Corporation", they KNOW that communication involves THAT specific product and not another firm's product who is trying to horn in on the original maker's sales. Trademark protection lasts indefinitely but requires the would-be trademark holder to file an application for use of the trademark (to ensure it isn't already in use) PRIOR to its use and requires the trademark holder to actively, consistently defend that trademark as it becomes aware of anyone else trying to use it. Failure to "assert" or "defend" a trademark will typically be viewed as abandonment of the trademark, leaving the holder no protection in court.

Copyright -- Copyright protections are intended to generate distinct but complementary benefits to individuals and society from the creation and dissemination of creative works. Copyright grants creators of a work exclusive control over the dissemination of the original work and control over the creation of any derivative work based on the original by any other party. Copyright protection typically extends for the lifetime of the creator ("author") and some countries extend the copyright for another X years to any entity designated by the creator. Copyrights can be sold by the creator to anyone they choose providing an alternate means of profiting from their own work. From a social and legal standpoint, copyright protections are aimed at encouraging the creation of new works that benefit society by ensuring creators can profit from their own work for their lifetime while at the same time ensuring those works eventually become public domain to further foster use throughout society.

Copyright is SIGNIFICANTLY different than the prior forms of protections because copyright protection is granted automatically under the law at the time of creation or formal publication. Creators can formally file a claim for copyright protection to ensure records are very clear about the work, the entity and the publication date but in most countries, copyright protection attaches to the work merely through its publication. This is a CRUCIAL distinction in the Fender case, as will be discussed next.

In the case of Fender, there is nothing about the final physical form of a guitar that lends itself to using trade secrets to protect any advantage over competitors. There are aspects of Fender's painting process it deems a trade secret but that's about it. The nature of the pickups, electronics and bridge hardware of a guitar are obviously open for any customer or competitor to examine and reverse engineer but by that token, such components ARE viable candidates for protection via patents which Fender has used in the past. However, patents only provide advantages for 17 years so individual patents have limited financial value. For patents to have value, Fender would need to continue innovating in design or manufacturing techniques over time and it isn't clear there is much frontier left for innovation on an electric guitar, bass or amp.

Fender certainly treats its brand name and model names as trademarks and has protected them vigorously from the inception of each instrument. However, Fender's prior attempt at protecting the Stratocaster by treating the body shape as a TRADEMARK failed in 2008 because Fender had never originally filed a declaration of the body shape as a trademark nor did it ever pursue litigation against any competitor for making guitars with the Stratocaster body shape until the 2008 case, nearly sixty years after initial release. The courts ruled Fender had allowed the body design to lapse into the public domain. In contrast, Fender DID trademark the visual design of its headstocks and DID vigorously defend those headstock designs against infringement and courts HAVE held up that trademark protection.

What Fender is now arguing based upon its German lawsuit and actions afterwards is that the PHYSICAL form and functionality of the Stratocaster guitar aren't solely derived for functionality suited for patent protection but they constitute an "artistic work." Why? Because that form of protection is provided by COPYRIGHT law and in most countries, copyright protection attaches to the "work" at the time of "publication" and continues for the proscribed term even if the "creator" didn't originally formally claim copyright or vigorously protect the copyright via infringement litigation. In other words, from the selfish perspective of the party making this argument, it's the perfect argument to make because it's essentially the ONLY argument remaining to be used for a product that is seventy years old, running out of areas for legitimate innovation yet commands huge economic cash flows if you can keep more of the market to yourself.

What does Fender's new legal strategy say about its business goals and strategy for achieving them? For that, we return to Fender's corporate history and how that mirrors larger trends in private equity, preferences for growth at all cost over stable profitability and stupidity.


A Quintessentially American Strategy

As the prior section on Fender's corporate history pointed out, Fender's organizational state can be broken down into the following phases:

  • independent operation from 1946 to 1965
  • operation inside a publicly traded corporate conglomerate from 1965 to 1985
  • independent operation under a team of owners who served as executives from 1985 to 2000
  • operation within a private equity consortium with minority control from 2001 to 2012
  • operation within a private equity consortium with majority control from 2012 to present

Arguably, an overwhelming share of the innovation reflected in current products occurred when Fender was independent from 1946 to 1965. Arguably, most of its manufacturing innovations required for those products also occurred during that period. Very little product or manufacturing innovation took place under CBS control for twenty years. Fender significantly revamped its manufacturing operations in the late 1980s and early 1990s and bought some breathing room allowing it to compete in lower-priced markets while still offering "traditional" gear for higher-priced domestic markets.

Unfortunately, Fender's investments in manufacturing through the 1990s left it operating on tooling that is now one or two technology generations out of date. Low-end competitors are using more advanced tooling to lower labor costs and drastically reduce the types of quality problems that are apparent on low-priced gear. At this point, strat-style guitars made overseas with modern automation selling for $165 US dollars are matching the quality, sound and playability of Fender-made Squiers and Fender Stratocasters costing between say $299 and $799.

If this trend has been setting up for the last ten to fifteen years, what triggered this drastic change in Fender's public stance towards both competitors and potential customers? One theory sees a connection between the following events:

  • In April 2025, Fender's private equity parent Servco buys the Reverb commerce site outright, gaining insight into millions of additional sales between retailers and consumers and used guitar sales between consumers. This Reverb data might very well reflect near-perfect and near-complete information on a huge swath of guitar sales, reflecting age/income of buyer and seller, price paid, guitar type and age, etc. In short, everything a guitar manufacturer would like to know about every competing instrument and overall market trends when setting long term strategy.
  • On January 7, 2026, Fender announces current CEO Andy Mooney will retire and be replaced by Edward Cole.
  • Cole previously ran Fender's "Apac" (Asia-Pacific) region for ten years and prior to that had executive roles involving luxury brand management.
  • Reverb sales data gave Cole insight into sales trends at the bottom of the price ladder previously hidden from Fender that not only confirmed the overall share of "strat-style" and "tele-style" guitars in the market but the extremely low price expectations being set by more of these sales.
  • Fender concluded the innovation avenue for growth is virtually non-existent, the labor reduction avenue for plants in the US, Mexico and Japan had limited payoffs due to the low retail prices on low end models and that increased price competition for low-end models could impair the Fender brand still attracting premium dollars for high end and custom guitars.
  • At that point, Fender decided to re-litigate intellectual property rights over its body designs as a means for keeping competitors out and allowing Fender to capture more of that business or ignore it without seeing its brand cheapened by inexpensive lookalikes.

In short, Fender decided it was easier to maintain or grow profitability by either re-capturing more of the low-end market for itself rather than surrendering it to "strat type" makers OR by blocking the manufacture of more "strat type" guitars entirely, allowing it to focus on high-margin models and customers. In other words, it's easier to attempt to re-establish a monopoly on the core product then do what a monopolist does -- curtail supply, charge more and optimize profits while doing less and not worrying about innovation at all.

From that chain of analysis, Fender decided to look for a poster child case that could be filed in a venue where the particular facts of the case could have the biggest splash zone if the case went its way, even if only for a short period through an appellate process. Filing the case in Germany hit several useful targets. Germany is home to a large online retailer Thomann that sells a variety of "strat type" instruments. Germany is in the EU so a German decision in Fender's favor would help widen the initial chill across anyone manufacturing or selling within the EU. In short, this jurisdiction helped improve the shock factor from this legal shot across the bow.

But wait. It was mentioned earlier that Fender LOST a 2008 lawsuit attempting to regain control over the Stratocaster body shape within the United States for both manufacturing and sales. Why does Fender think this verdict in a German case against a Chinese manufacturer can be used to completely eliminate "strat style" competition worldwide? The thinking is that firms making strat style instruments IN the US are still dependent on volume sold in the EU for profitability so that if EU sales are blocked, the firms cannot survive on US sales alone and will still have to stop making them.

One final theory suggests that Fender may not literally want to HALT all of these low-end strat-style guitars from being made but Fender DOES want to collect a license fee on every single unit. This is actually a legitimate legal and economic model for Fender and its competitors. One American firm named Warmoth Guitars has sold raw wood and fully finished bodies, necks and parts for Strat and Tele style guitars including Fender's official headstock designs for decades. Warmonth pays a license fee to Fender for each one. Fender gets its cut, Warmoth makes money, and customers have a source for exact Fender lookalike parts (except for the decals and logos) that are totally legal yet customizeable beyond what Fender is willing to do on a mass market basis. Is a licensing program Fender's actual goal? More may become known after May 26 when Fender expects initial replies from some of those served the cease and desist notices and announces its next steps.

This is all conjecture reflecting ideas from a variety of people from a variety of forums.

No one will ever know if Fender did its homework on Yiwu to know it would fail to show up to defend itself or if it just lucked out. It's also not clear how much Fender considered when choosing the Dusseldorf court to file the case. Did Fender "venue shop" this case, looking for a particular local court or judge with a track record of alternate interpretations of established intellectual property rights doctrine and case law?

Fender's decision to pursue this strategy is familiar in most ways but surprising in one. It is FAMILIAR because the decisions all point to a mindset in the leadership of Fender and its private equity parent Servco that assumes it is possible to either continue growing unit sales and revenue forever without hitting some upper bound OR it is equally possible to continue extracting more profits from a fixed investment by simply squeezing internal margins and distorting the legal system to impose unjustifiable limitations on competitors.

Fender's strategy is SURPRISING in one sense because its biggest rival Gibson already went down this road just a few years back. Gibson hired a CEO in the 1990s who decided to manage Gibson as a "lifestyle brand" and spent hundreds of millions gobbling up music related brands in the instrument and software space only to destroy what was good about them or ignore them into oblivion so they added nothing to the brand family. At the same time, Gibson assumed it could continue charging more every year for its core Gibson guitar lineup while alienating its workforce and tanking quality.

Gibson was a dead man walking for nearly FIFTEEN years under this disastrous management team and had to fire the CEO, take the company through bankruptcy in 2018 and borrow $135 million dollars to regain solvency. Even then, new management still launched a disastrous two-pronged campaign to guilt its own customers into shunning competing products (the "Authentic Gibson" campaign) while launching lawsuits against a variety of makers selling guitars based upon Gibson's Explorer, SG and Flying V. Gibson initially won its case in 2022 but the case was overturned on appeal and is still being litigated. Of course, Gibson has not regained the respect and cache it once held with its customers. It is not out of the woods financially either. In 2025, its quarter ending June 30, 2025 saw a decline in revenue of eleven percent and a sixty four percent drop in EBITDA earnings (a measure that itself excludes many other standard intangible costs).

Fender not only learned nothing from its own history of starving its operations of meaningful investments in modernization and bogus "innovation" through over-branding meaningless distinctions between models, it failed to learn from its arch-nemesis Gibson, who had already written the book on failed brand management, bad operations management and horrible customer relations. And Fender is following that playbook across the entire globe, at a time when American products and particularly American business practices are viewed not with respect or begrudging admiration but anger and contempt.

The Fender Stratocaster I bought in 2025 was already going to be the last guitar I was going to add to my collection. I don't need more amplifiers so I am already past the point where my purchases were going to generate any additional profits for Fender. However, if I was younger and still in the throes of Gear Acquisition Syndrome, Fender's attempt to squeeze competitors out of the market place would have resulted in any Fender product being eliminated from consideration. This is a common reaction of those far more active in the playing and purchasing realm. It does not bode well for Fender's future.


WTH

Thursday, April 16, 2026

Future Energy Shocks Already Baked In

Two different stories that attracted clicks the week of April 13, 2026 aren't capturing nearly the attention they would if politicians, business execs and the public truly comprehended their meaning. One story involves a precipitous change in source and route strategy for many oil tanker owners and operators. The other reflects a rapid decline in jet fuel reserves across the entire globe that appears to be on track to exhaust supply in six weeks.

First, a bit more detail on the two stories. Merchant marine expert Sal Mercogliano noted on his YouTube channel that 121 empty oil tankers that had been waiting for some sign of sanity to return to the Gulf region have suddenly begun moving on routes taking them to US ports.

Presumably, those owners have concluded there is little likelihood in the short term of being able to safely transit the Gulf so they have obtained new contracts to haul US crude and refined products to other customers. YEA! Great for America! More revenue for US oil companies!. Right?

Uhhhhhh... No.

The second story is related to the first. Numerous outlets have cited comments from officials in Europe and Asia regarding measures to ration jet fuel supplies in anticipation of even larger supply shortages in the coming weeks - as early as mid-May. Jet fuel prices have doubled, even though gasoline and diesel prices have risen less. When three different products from the same raw material rise by such different amounts, it's a sign that the positioning of refining capacity is not evenly distributed across all markets. First, locations along the Persian Gulf PRODUCE jet fuel so now that cannot reach markets. And the CRUDE oil produced in the gulf that is shipped to refineries in Asia often creates jet fuel as one of the output products but with no CRUDE arriving, those secondary sources of jet fuel aren't producing any either.


Oil, A Fungible Market for a Non-Fungible Product

The essence of Mercogliano's analysis is based upon a key truth that must be understood about oil markets. Media often simplifies discussions about energy markets and oil by talking about "the price of oil" which not only implies there is a single price but that oil is a single fungible commodity. Oil markets are incredibly vast which does help to even out most variations in price since producers are selling into a very large demand curve. However, shipment costs DO impact pricing.

More importantly, most politicians and business types tend to treat "crude oil" as a single homogeneous product. Crude oil is absolutely not a single homogeneous product. Economists and politicians who think otherwise clearly learned nothing about logistics from the issues America experienced with toilet paper during the pandemic or with steel via Trump's tariffs.

Toilet paper is not toilet paper. There's the kind Americans buy for their own butts and the kind that corporate America buys for the butts of its employees at work. The conceptual demand is the same by (ahem... "use") regardless of where people are actually located but actual demand is not the same if suddenly everyone is working 100% at home and not at work. That's a third of demand shifting from the cheap corporate TP to the plushy consumer TP. Totally different products, totally different plants, totally different distribution networks, etc. Of course, politicians and many economists blamed it on "hording" by consumers. No... A shift of one third of the market from variety X to variety Y.

Steel is not steel. There are DOZENS of significantly different types of steel produced for use in cars, appliances, construction, etc. American firms only had viably efficient operations in a HANDFUL of varieties and had ceded the market for most other flavors to overseas companies. Suddenly imposing tariffs on foreign steel as a measure to encourage on-shoring of more steel making is of ZERO value when there is literally NO production or expertise left for specific varieties and those firms have zero trust in the government holding a steady policy position over the DECADES required to justify a huge re-investment into fixed costs.

Like TP isn't TP and steel isn't steel, oil isn't oil. Trump and his clown cabinet keep acting as though America has energy independence from the craziness in the Middle East and the chaos America is creating in the Mideast. America has absolutely ZERO independence from Middle East oil. Since 1975, the four largest refineries built have been

  • Galena Park, TX, built in 2014 with current capacity of 105,000 barrels
  • Lake Charles, LA, built in 1977 with current capacity of 135,500 barrels
  • Garyville, LA, built in 1976 with current capacity of 597,000 barrels
  • Corpus Christi, TX, built in 1975 with current capacity of 290,500 barrels

As of January 1, 2025, there were 132 active refineries in America with a total production capacity of roughly 18.4 million barrels per day. However, seventy percent of that capacity can only process heavy crude from traditional oil wells rather than the "light sweet" (meaning low sulfur) crude produced by fracking which reflects most of the growth in US oil production.

America is the economic equivalent of a panda that claims it has achieved "food independence" after inventing a clever way to boost corn production fifty percent... but is still only capable of or interested in digesting bamboo shoots. Even after fracking took off in the 1990s, American producers invested virtually nothing in increasing refining capacity for "light sweet" crude. As a result, those firms ship much of America's fracking output to overseas refiners who HAVE capacity and American producers IMPORT vast quantities of heavy crude to continue refining in their ancient plants designed for traditional well output. If the supply of THAT oil is curtailed, American consumers IMMEDIATELY see increased prices at the pump. If the cost of THAT oil spikes because of longer supply routes and greater insurance costs for war zone risks, Americans feel those spikes immediately as well. That's not energy independence. That's economic co-dependence.

The analysis by Sal Mercogliano focuses on three key aspects of global crude shipments. One involves the daily volume of barrels that were previously shipped prior to the Strait being closed. Tanker routes might be twenty or thirty days long to get from point of origin to destination. If 100 full ships exited the Gulf prior to the lockdown, that means those ships arrived at their destination 20-30 days later and until that time, those destinations saw no reduction in volume. That creates a false impression of physical stability in supply. Wow, the world didn't end four days later, I guess the supply chain is more resilient than we thought.

No, those en route ships act like floating inventory and buffer destinations from shocks, until the parade of en route ships finishes arriving at the destinations with no ships behind them. The routes followed by VLCC class ships from the Persian Gulf to Asian ports can take 45 to 50 days to transit. April 16, 2026 is about 45 days after the original blockade began so those destinations are now beginning to see the last tankers arrive that escaped prior to February 28.

Mercogliano further explains those extra 121 ships will arrive at US ports tied to US oil production infrastructure that is already operating at 95% utilization for existing demand and reflects a certain balance between three distinct types of shipments:

  • outgoing unrefined light sweet crude, tied to fracking production in the US
  • outgoing unrefined heavy (high sulfur) crude, tied to traditional wells reflecting 1870s well technologies
  • incoming refined oil products

Most of the outgoing capacity is geared towards light sweet crude since American refineries limited investments in the distinct equipment required to process it locally. The incoming capacity for refined oil products cannot be converted to handling unrefined crude. But even if it could, that incoming capacity is directly supporting domestic consumption and cannot be surrendered to outbound crude production to help world demand without completely unbalancing US domestic energy markets.

All of this makes more sense if the example is switched to the supply of fresh water in your home. If the plumbing in your house is of fixed size and already in use 100% for every hour of the day, volunteering to help local fire departments combat brush fires by filling their tanker at your home makes no sense. You don't have the parking space for dozens of trucks to park while filling and your plumbing is already 100% utilized filling your baths, dishwashers, clothes washers and sprinkler system. You can try to increase the pressure from the water company but your main was never spec'ed to handle that pressure.

Mercogliano's final point is that this large-scale redirection of empty tankers towards the US virtually guarantees at least one more supply shock, but possibly more. If ship owners have redirected ships to US ports, it confirms those owners no longer trust what Trump is saying on any particular day about whether the Strait will be "open" or whether that will mean anything regarding actual safety for crews and ships. Those parties have resigned themselves to longer routes, higher daily lease costs, higher energy bills for fuel and have accepted contracts that will pass those increases onto the buyer of the oil at the destination.

The change in the routes for existing ships also injects a square wave change in supply. Once redirected to the US, each such ship is dedicated to that route between source and destination. So each ship is now stuck on a longer interim route from its original "waiting lot" to the US as an "empty" then a MUCH LONGER route as a full load from the US to the destination. (As Mercogliano points out, none of the supertankers can use the Panama canal -- they all must sail east around Africa then back to southeast Asia.) Typical one-way routes from the Persian Gulf to Asia might be 22 days. One-way routes from US Gulf ports to Asia might be 45-50 days. This means once traffic temporarily adjusts to US sourcing, each "empty" ship committed to another US voyage pickup cannot revert to the shorter Persian Gulf trip for at least 90 days. This now means the damage done to oil supplies is now "baked in" for at least 90 days, yet we haven't even experienced the worse part of the impacts yet.


There's More Coming

The second story about jet fuel supplies is a microcosm of the larger crude supply chain ecosystem. The choice of attack targets by both the United States and Iran in attempts to make the other feel pain and concede damaged unique concentrations of refining capacity for jet fuel in Iran and Kuwait. The obvious reduction in crude volumes leaving the Persian Gulf further magnified jet fuel refining capacity at remote locations which now lack the crude required to refine it for local use.

Again, this would appear easy to explain to a child of ten just with a few diagrams and visual aids but this situation wasn't created by small children with fourth-grade math skills and a solid grasp of object permanence. Refineries take YEARS to build and require unique equipment designed to operate at massive scale that cannot be magically teleported out of a war zone or manufactured from thin air with zero notice. And energy companies in America in particular have never invested the money required to add extra capacity to sit idle waiting for disruptions like this. Instead, most American refineries operate at about 95% utilization with barely enough downtime for required maintenance.

As a final example of the folly of this thinking, ponder the response of American energy executives to Trump's coup in Venezuela and his goal of having US firms "invest" in refining capacity for Venezuelan crude to benefit the US. Only one firm (Chevron) has reach any deal to invest ANYTHING in Venezuela. No firm has agreed to build any additional refining capacity in the US for Venezuelan crude. Why? None of them trust that Venezuela is politically stable after Trump's coup. The same party is in control and Trump has already denigrated the opposition leader who actually won the most recent election. And those executives know refining investments have a 30-40 year payback and they already think fossil fuel consumption has peaked. Why modernize the buggy whip factory?

The forces at work in the jet fuel market are mirrored in the Liquid Natural Gas market as well. One of the largest production facilities in the world in Qatar was heavily damaged early on by attacks from Iran. The company that operates the plant expects repairs to take at least three years to complete, affecting up to 12.8 million tons per year of output capacity.

What does this mean for economies around the world? People are going to pay much larger fares to book flights for the holidays and will be at risk of serious disruptions even if they hold a ticket. LNG is one of the most widely used fuels for spot electrical generation required to balance supply and demand on electric grids. Higher LNG prices for the next few years combined with surging demand for AI bubble processing assures higher electric rates for business and consumers nearly everywhere. In short, inflationary forces will remain at work within nearly every economy for MONTHS after any settlement is reached.


The vast majority of politicians, "news reporters" and financial experts speculating on what happens next do not provide this larger context. It's not political. It's physics. Supertankers cannot hit a hyperspace key and suddenly insert themselves into an alternate position in an alternate reality after political leaders claim they've solved a problem and eliminated a threat. Oil companies cannot instantly replicate a ten billion dollar investment in plant to replace equipment that's been blown up.

American voters are the only people on the planet that can stop this insanity. Republican Senators and Representatives at the Federal and State level who continue to give Trump cover for this immoral, disastrous war need to be voted out across the board. The blame cannot stop after Trump attempts to claim victory and move on to the next disaster. The blame needs to stick as long as the damage sticks. And the damage here is permanent.


WTH

Wednesday, April 01, 2026

The Divorce Is Final

For a brief moment, the title We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together was considered for this commentary but this outlet has avoided Taylor Swift references as much as possible for twenty plus years, it seems like a good idea to continue that practice. However, that sentiment among America's former allies is something American citizens need to thoroughly contemplate. And it is absolutely appropriate to reference American allies in the past tense. All of them.

The signs of America's lost alliances can be loosely grouped into four categories -- immediate hot war cooperation, long term military procurement strategy, toleration of financial and technology monopolies and culture. The events in these categories and their financial interactions and magnifications are complex and likely to be missed in the near term (the next year or two) but they will result in changes that will undermine the financial stability and future prospects of Americans in perpetuity. America has enough existential issues as it is. A looming fiscal catastrophe. Supplies of fresh water and hydroelectric power jeopardized by forty years of drought (actually, not drought but normal weather) in the West. Rising tides in coastal regions triggered by global warming. All issues that have been totally neglected as America instead focuses on a war of choice and dozens of ripple effects that will topple the economic hierarchy that put America at the top for the past half century.


Immediate Hot War Cooperation

In the Soviet era of post-WWII history, there was zero ambiguity among American allies about the motivation behind any requested collective action. Those motivations might have been unjustified paranoia in hindsight but, at the time, they were clearly understood and believed. That coherence became fuzzy for maybe fifteen years after the collapse of the Soviet Union but became more clear as Putin became more active in antagonizing neighbors in the 2000s.

American leaders benefited from and arguably abused that coherent sense of urgency, knowing that, for the most part, any time the United States chose to exert military force, American allies would eventually come around to support it. At a minimum, American allies might not lend their own forces to a conflict but they would always allow American forces operating out of bases in their territory to stage operations from those bases. At a BARE minimum, those allies would always allow American forces to fly over their airspace for staging missions or actual attacks.

That assumed level of cooperation can no longer be assumed. Spain has denied access to its airspace for any American military craft involved with the war in Iran. Italy has prohibited the use of an American air base on Sicily for use in missions related to Iran. Spain has banned any use of its bases or airspace for flights related to Iran. France has been accused by Trump in social media posts of banning use of its airspace but the French government denies any such outright ban has been enacted, saying military flights must obtain prior diplomatic clearance per French policy since the beginning of the war. Switzerland of course has a long history of neutrality so it's no surprise flyover requests have mostly been declined.

If the United States no longer gets the benefit of the doubt to fly its own missions over "allied" countries, it seems likely those "allies" also have concerns about sharing other intelligence with US security and military organizations and Israeli counterparts as well. Such reservations would seem particularly dangerous in an environment after attacking a nation that is arguably among the top three sponsors of terrorism in the world. Yet this prospect seems completely foreign to the Trump Administration, which frankly makes former allies even MORE fearful about sharing information.

This problem cannot be understated. The risks posed by terrorism to American citizens have been drastically increased by the arrogance and disrespect demonstrated by the American government to those that might have information to share and might have previously been willing to share it.


Long Term Military Procurement Strategy

America's former allies have begun unshackling themselves from tight integration strategies with American designed weapons systems and resulting dependencies on American defense contractors. This strategic shift has been driven by many factors. The war in Ukraine was an eye opener for many reasons:

  • It showed how fickle the US could be in supplying missile defense systems and missiles themselves to its own "allies" while under actual attack.
  • It demonstrated how long manufacturing intervals could be for the weapons American finally decided to sell.
  • It demonstrated how newer, cheaper drone weapons could run circles around sixty year old military tactics used by the Russians.

Beyond the war in Ukraine, American posturing over tariff wars, threats against Greenland, threats against Canada and now a war in Iran that has crippled twenty percent of the world's oil and fifty percent of the world's LNG supply have shown America to be be completely irrational. It is no longer sound for any nation to willingly maintain dependence on a country stupid enough to be doing the things America is doing that actually cripple America's ability to manufacture the weapons it sells to other countries. Depending on America to sell you Tomahawk missiles or F-35 fighters when America has lost access to the semiconductors or special purpose steel varieties required to make those products seems insane, if not geopolitically suicidal.

Over the past few months, predating the war in Iran, this unraveling of the American monopoly on high-dollar weapons system design and manufacturing has been accelerating.

Canada has frozen the purchase of 72 of a total of 88 F-35 fighters, in part because it seems increasingly clear the F-35's capabilities may be overkill for defense needs in Canada but also due to Canada's unwillingness to provide business to a neighbor that has behaved so poorly to Canada.

Switzerland is also reviewing its $625 billion purchase program for F-35 planes.

In September 2025, Spain "indefinitely suspended" its plan to purchase F-35 planes in favor of investing in a European-made fighter plane. Spain committed to meeting its two percent GDP target for military spending but stated it is working to ensure eighty five percent of that spending stays in the European Union rather than enriching American contractors.

And if these concerns by former allies seem overblown, on April 1, 2026, Trump was quoted in a British paper musing that America may exit the NATO alliance because of the refusal of NATO allies to join the war in Iran. Frankly, it would be irrational for these countries to ignore the current reality and continue the current dynamic.

The fragmenting of military weapons system design strategies will hurt America more than any of its former allies. American defense contractors benefited the most from monolithic design and purchasing programs. American defense contractors have grown accustomed to "cost plus" contracts and have become extremely inefficient in the process of producing designs that are both too complicated and ill-suited for a modern war pitting a dinosaur $13 billion dollar aircraft carrier against a few hundred drones costing $20,000 each. There are hundreds of thousands of jobs scattered across every congressional district in the country that will be decimated when the rest of the world cooperates on new weapons system designs and leaves American firms completely out of the procurement.


Toleration of Financial and Technology Monopolies

The pattern of jettisoning American dominance is not limited to weapons systems. Foreign governments are now systematically doing what the American government has refused to do to enforce anti-trust laws and break up abusive monopolies.

For the past fifty years, credit card payment services have been dominated worldwide by the American firms Visa and Mastercard. (Note this issue revolves around the PAYMENT function, not the actual CREDIT and long term BORROWING function served by issuing banks. That's a totally different problem.) Visa and Mastercard quickly gained dominance as the credit card industry exploded in the 1970s in America and that dominance spread to foreign countries as well, if only because America led other countries in the concept of revolving credit cards so it was easiest for other countries to go with established players as the product concept spread to other economies.

While these monopolies were accepted, they were still unpopular. As newer digital payment processes became popular with smart phones and web commerce, newer companies created transaction models that were more flexible and easier to implement while the established firms were much slower to innovate. Many countries that never saw widespread adoption of revolving credit cards instead jumped straight into digital payment technologies and had the foresight to impose standards that avoided proprietary technologies and allowed actual competition, negating the ability of any firm to dominate. In Brazil, the central bank operates a digital platform supporting 150 million users without the high interest revolving credit card terms or sky-high transaction fees that get funneled into rebate programs, etc.

This should have been the financial landscape in the United States. At some point, it probably WILL be the landscape in the US after another financial collapse triggers more credit contraction and more people just abandon traditional credit cards. Long term, American firms will likely lose any dominance they had in this sector and other countries will work to keep American firms out, if not to avoid the financial abuse and dependency but to avoid American government access to private data of customers in other countries.

A similar revolution is underway in operating systems and "office productivity" software, for identical reasons. Foreign governments are increasingly fearful that the US government is forcing American software firms like Microsoft, Apple and Google to support "back doors" into their products that allow undetected access to customer data by the US government. Or, in some cases, the US government exerts undue force on American corporations to turn over customer data, regardless of where that customer lives in the world. These aren't "fears." They have happened.

In response, foreign governments have enacted regulations to ensure they stop feeding the monster by continuing to use suspect products. In 2024, the province of Schleswig-Holstein in Germany required all 30,000 of its desktop systems to migrate away from Microsoft Office 365 and Windows to LibreOffice and some flavor of Linux. In 2025, Denmark implemented a nearly identical rule. By late 2025, officials in Austria, Denmark, Germany, France, Italy confirmed identical rules affecting nearly 800,000 machines and users. These movements to dump American software are also extending to video conferencing services such as Teams and Zoom, for identical reasons. European governments have zero confidence American firms are honoring European law regarding privacy protections and have zero interest in funneling millions of dollars in licensing revenue towards American firms who are not honoring their demands.

As this mindset takes hold across all continents, prior assumptions about the financial payoff of tech startups in America will vanish, further contracting the financial benefits of America's technology industries going forward, further shrinking economic opportunity within the United States.

And finally, there is the collapse of the mother of all monopolies. The monopoly that benefits Americans the most and is understood by virtually NO Americans. The American monetary monopoly on the world, made possible by a fifty year old pact between the United States and Saudi Arabia that established the era of the so-called "petro dollar."

The purchasing power of the American dollar and the US government's ability to borrow at essentially subsidized rates for DECADES has been driven by a deal struck after the first OPEC embargo in 1973. In order to assure a steady supply of oil from the Middle East to a very energy-inefficient American economy, the US agreed to sell weapons and planes to Saudi Arabia and enter a pact for the defense of Saudi Arabia in exchange for the Saudis selling oil to America and requiring all oil sold by Saudi Arabia to ANYONE to be physically purchased in US dollars.

When a party agrees to REQUIRE all purchases of its products to be denominated in US dollars and its sells tens of billions of dollars of that product every day, that has the effect of drastically increasing the demand for US dollars. This increases their value relative to other currencies in the international economy. When that product demand is steady, day after day, month after month, this increases certainty in the value of those US dollars over long periods, making them more desirable to use in other transactions, including lending money to sovereign governments, including the United States.

The United States and its citizens have benefited far more than any other nation from this petro dollar arrangement. It lowered US government borrowing costs, disguising the true extent of the folly America's out-of-control government spending. That attracted more foreign investment in US government securities and corporate securities. That influx of investment expanded the US government's leverage during financial crises and led the rest of the world to follow the lead of the US during such crises, cuz after all, WE HAVE TRILLIONS OF YOUR MONEY. And since 1974, America has used that leverage for the most part to maintain stability and contain the damage of several crises as well. (Not avoid them, just stop them from getting worse.)

As of April 1, 2026, this last bit of monetary monopolistic control over the world is being abandoned by a corrupt President who couldn't explain the mechanism or its benefits if his life depended on it. Trump has essentially announced he is willing to walk away from his war in Iran with Iran in control of all ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The largest single consumer of oil from the Middle East is China so it is highly likely they will demand all future oil contracts be settled in yuan rather than US dollars. That will shift demand for dollars into demand for yuan. A reduction in demand for dollars will immediately reduce the purchasing power of dollars, raising prices for EVERYTHING for all Americans. Lower demand for dollars will also weaken demand to invest in US treasuries, requiring higher interest rates to be paid on new debt to attract other lenders, causing the cost of servicing America's $39 trillion dollar cumulative debt to skyrocket.


America - The World's Apex Predator Asshole

There is no other way to put it. Since Trump took office the first time in 2017, the predominate impression America has created with people around the world is that of a big, dumb, arrogant ASSHOLE. This isn't an accidental, side-effect dynamic. It isn't the dynamic generated by eighty years of responsibility trying to lead the world after World War II and mostly trying to do the right thing. It isn't the dynamic generated by at least trying to do the right thing while deluded by obsolete geopolitical theories that trapped America and the world in pre-WWII patterns of thought that simply regenerated old struggles within new borders. It isn't the dynamic generated by eighty years of all the above that took place while America rigged every outcome to disproportionately benefit the American economy and reinforce American power as part of the "fee" charged for leading the free world.

No, the effect being seen now is one that results from the a-hole dynamic appearing to be the primary motivation behind American decisions. Decisions aimed at flexing American military and financial power by purposely engaging in actions with no obvious benefit to anyone including American citizens that knowingly harm our allies. Simply because we can. Simply because the American President requires constant affirmation that he has sole power to make any decision to settle any score for any slight he identifies or imagines anywhere in the world.

America's former allies are GONE. They are not watching current events, spotting America a world sized mulligan and holding their breath waiting for regime change in America. Regardless of who or what gains power next in America, its former allies have realized they should never have allowed America to dominate finance, technology and economics in general to the degree it has since World War II. No people, no culture, no form of government can amass that much financial power and technological prowess without being corrupted to the core. Once the blinders are removed and the corruption is seen in the daylight for what it is, there's no putting the blinders back on.


WTH