A series of painful lessons are enroute to American citizens over the next few decades. You get to choose your leaders (for now...). You get to choose your wars (for now...). You DO NOT get to choose your consequences. You need to be more careful in your choices of leaders.
Let's Not Bury the Lede, Shall We?
Any attempt to analyze America's latest elective military disaster poses a substantial rhetorical risk to both the analyst and anyone bothering to read the analysis. Analysis relies upon logical, rational thought processes in the brain which typically start by assuming a modicum of rationality and worthiness to the act being analyzed. It assumes the aim of the analysis is to identify flaws in the execution of an act or identify corrections going forward to improve likely outcomes.
This attack by the United States has no basis in rationality or morality. It's important to start any analysis of this type of act with the most important facts up front.
Wars should always be a last resort for solving disputes of any kind.
Wars have NEVER ended the way ANY participants in those wars expected.
Wars attempting to project power over a remote land without soldiers to impose and maintain order have never resulted in victory for the entity projecting power.
Unless a weapon is actively raised and / or a munition is on its way, pre-emptively launching a war against an enemy is morally indefensible.
A government that lies to its citizens about the justifications for launching a war has no moral authority to retain power.
There is no way to "win" an immoral war as the instigator.
A Meme-Based, Post-Reality World War
It is crucial to understand the event that was launched on February 27, 2026 for what it is. The joint United States / Israeli attack on Iran has resulted in bombs dropping in multiple countries -- Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, Iraq and Cyprus. Some of those attacks triggered treaty obligations involving the UK and Germany after bombs hit facilities they operate in affected countries. There is already a war originally involving Russia and Ukraine that has spread to nearby European countries as terrestrial and ocean pipelines are targeted for attacks. We literally have a world at war.
This latest attack was first conveyed to the public via a video post on Trump's social media application rather than official, serious communication channels to either the American public or its elected Congressional officials. Iran has issued fake video posts depicting fictional damage to the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier in a bizarre attempt to fool its own citizens, despite the fact that virtually none have access due to the shutdown of Internet services within the country.
Modern technology is providing near-live video of launches of dozens of million dollar Tomahawk missiles and bomb damage at targets intermixed with real-time video and social media messages from US officials completely contradicting each other on basic questions such as the justification for the attack, what the goals are for the attack, how long the Administration expects the war to last, etc. It is crucial to reiterate this point. It is NOT the case that DIFFERENT officials are giving DIFFERENT statements on these topics where PersonA says A, PersonB says B, PersonC says C. What is happening is PersonA is saying X, PersonB is saying NOT X and PersonC is saying X again with maybe Y or Z. War strategy is being discussed and set in public via competing tweets and public appearances by Cabinet officers trying to catch the attention of an addled President who will not read a briefing book. Utter chaos.
Any media outlet claiming to make sense of this or present talking head analysis to tell us what comes next is completely misleading their audience and the wider public. NO ONE can predict what comes next because the leaders in control have no rational core anchoring the decisions that are being made. When a fuller history of this disaster becomes known in five years or a generation, it will be clear that every crucial decision was triggered by attempts to satisfy the whims of a President with the attention span of a gnat and the intellect to match.
No Legal or Moral Justification
Trump first spoke of the war after it began via a short message recorded from his home in Florida. In a pre-recorded video, Trump wore a bitchin' white baseball cap with USA letters reading a statement off a teleprompter. That first statement included this claim:
Instead, they attempted to rebuild their nuclear program and to continue developing the long range missiles that can now threaten our very good friends and allies in Europe, our troops stationed overseas, and could soon reach the American homeland.
Yet multiple Senators and House members who were given a top-secret briefing lasting seventeen minutes on Sunday morning March 1 were told by top Pentagon security analysts that the action was NOT in response to any imminent threat. And no one in the defense establishment was claiming Iran has any capability to reach European countries with missiles of any kind, much less the US mainland.
In contrast, Iran does have missile technology that can reach Israel and that capability is much closer to the true motivation behind this attack In fact, Secretary of State Rubio made a stunning comment in an appearance before Congress on March 2:
The second question I’ve been asked is ‘Why now?’ Well, there are two reasons why now. The first is it was abundantly clear that if Iran came under attack by anyone, the United States or Israel or anyone, they were going to respond and respond against the United States. If we stood and waited for that attack to come first before we hit them, we would suffer much higher casualties . So, the president made the very wise decision. We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action, we knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties.
Of course, this explanation was carefully re-re-re-explained in subsequent hours to minimize any appearance of over-stepping on Trump's verbal diarrhea while simultaneously attempting to erase the obvious strategic and legal implications that the US launched a pre-emptive attack because it feared another client state of America would launch an attack on Iran that would result in Iran attacking US assets in the region. Not exactly an imminent threat meriting a unilateral decision of a President to launch a full scale war under the most lenient interpretation of constitutional powers.
No Rational Security and Intelligence Strategy
The Trump Administration has already demonstrated gross incompetence and indifference in the security and intelligence aspects of this war. The fact that Kuwaiti air defense forces fired upon US fighter jets shows that US leaders were not properly synced with allied command and control on tactics.
After launching the war, the US State Department issued travel warnings to US citizens to avoid virtually the entire middle east. At the same time, the US also issued a notice to existing US personnel in those states that they were completely on their own and that no assistance would be provided for them to get out of harm's way. This presumably includes top intelligence personnel in the region. People's whose intelligence in the coming months and years will be quite valuable. People completely hung out to dry, unprotected.
As the final coup de incompetence, FBI Director Kash Patel, fresh from his trip to the US Hockey Team locker room, returned to Washington DC in time to fire roughly one dozen experts and staff within the FBI with expertise in... WAIT FOR IT... Iranian counter-intelligence. They were fired literally DAYS before the attack. Given Iran's operation of a worldwide network of violent terrorist cells, one would normally presume Iran would have means to trigger attacks on infrastructure, communication networks and similar targets here in the US.
Fears of Iranian regime blowback in the US are not far-fetched. Earlier in January, a pro-Iranian individual drove his car into a group of protesters in Los Angeles who were protesting for the return of the prior Shah's son to power in Iran. A man was shot by police at a bar in Austin, TX early Sunday morning March 2 after he shot three people amid a flurry of shots. That man, a Senegalese national age 53, was wearing a sweatshirt with Iranian insignia.
If there was EVER a time in which a staff of Iranian counter-intelligence resources should be safe from a budget axe or score-settling, one would assume that time would be now. So how carefully was this effort coordinated across our unified "Department of Homeland Security"? I guess we should just put that in quotes. The title is clearly no longer actually descriptive.
No Rational Political Strategy
Trump and Defense Secretary Hegseth were asked separately at different times for estimates on the duration of this war. Both provided completely different answers not only about the duration but the underlying mission. Trump first stated the goal was to eliminate Ayatollah Khamenei but leaving what happens next up to the Iranian people.
Hegseth opened a press appearance by explicitly stating the attack was not about regime change but look at what happened cuz clearly the regime changed. In reality, Iran has continued organized, consistent attacks on oil facilities throughout the region in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, etc. indicating the February regime is still in control and that Hegseth has no connection to reality.
In a later appearance, Trump was asked again about regime change and filling the void if the current regime did eventually fall. Trump stated that the US had identified several A, B and C alternatives to replace Khamenei but unfortunately, A, B and C were all wiped out with Khamenei.
So what is the actual reality within the Administration? First the goal was simply eliminating the current leader. Then the goal WAS regime change. Then the US had identified preferred replacements but all three preferred replacements were WITH the current leader when he was killed. How much of a regime change would be gained if the replacements came from the same team? About the same amount of change as achieved in Venezuela. NONE.
In another twist direct from the Department of Can't Make This **** Up, the Trump Administration is now making references to involving the Kurds in the fight to topple the Iranian regime. America and the Kurds go way back because America has been playing Lucy and the Football with the Kurds for DECADES. The Kurds are an ethnic population of nearly 30 million people tied to a region loosely scattered across the touch points between western Iran, northern Iraq, southeastern Turkey and northern extremities of Syria. Of course, these countries and the boundaries between them have come and gone and moved hither and yon since the latter 1800s, always at the whims of western powers and their selfish interests in oil and never factoring into account these types of ethnic groups living within those borders.
Since 1979, America in particular has found great use in pitching partnerships with ethnic Kurd fighters in a perpetual game of Lucy and the Football where America creates a disaster for itself (first with Iran after 1979, then with Iraq after 1990 then again in Iraq in 2003) and when the prospect of AMERICAN boots on the ground to control territory becomes intolerable, the idea of "partnering" with Kurdish forces for them to attack the enemy in exchange for a promise of being able to establish their own homeland is pitched. It's never worked out, yet here we are again, looking for another remake of a movie that never was.
In the interest of actual reality, as of March 4 around 3:00pm CST, it appears there will be no immediate regime change. Multiple news outlets are reporting that Iran's power structure seems likely to appoint the departed Khamenei's 56 year old son Majtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader. Other outlets in India are reporting the decision has already been made. Meet the new boss... Same as the old boss.
No Comprehension of Economic Reality
Prior to attacking Iran in February 2026, the United States was already running yearly deficits around $1.8 trillion dollars per year with an accumulated debt of over $36 trillion dollars. American businesses have lost hundreds of billions of dollars in business for the foreseeable future as Trump imposed tariffs triggered foreign countries to negotiate two-way deals with each other leaving American businesses and American dollars completely out of the loop. Soybean deals? Gone. Wheat deals? Gone. Not reduced. Gone. Other products such as California wine sales to Canada and Kentucky bourbon / Tennessee whiskey sales to Canada have dropped seventy percent.
Trump's authority to collect these tariffs was rejected by the Supreme Court but the court deferred any decision on what to do with already-collected revenue to lower courts. Given the roughly $287 billion dollars collected under the illegal tariffs, this acts like a giant looming accounting adjustment on the US Treasury ledger and a $287 billion dollar question mark seen by investors worldwide. Those worldwide investors are looking at a country that didn't just launch a new expensive war of choice, they're looking at a country that just launched an expensive war of choice from a position of profound economic weakness that faces a multitude of threats:
- rising inflation rates, despite the ruling rejecting existing tariffs
- more inflation en route due to rising oil prices from the Iran war, driving up costs throughout the world
- more inflation en route due to rising oil prices from the Iran war that increase trucking / distribution costs within the US for nearly all goods
- reductions in consumer credit as private equity lending firms begin facing hidden losses in the tens of billions of dollars
- a hype bubble in the AI tech sector that could trigger a trillion dollar collapse in the only firms that have resulted in stock market growth for the past three years
- GDP growth figures that have dropped to an annual rate of roughly 1.4% (dropping from a 4.3% rate in 3Q2025) which reflects a huge slowdown and a rate insufficient to maintain tax revenues to control deficits
- layoffs in tech sectors previously offering some of the best paying jobs in the economy continue on a weekly basis
- housing starts are up compared to prior quarters in 2025 but those percentages are based upon a multi-year low hit in October 2025 and are still far below earlier levels from 2020 to 2023
Launching this war of choice has further alienated every country that previously viewed the USA as a stable ally, both financially and militarily. And the US is heightening this alienation at a time when economic uncertainty may soon require "adult leadership" to avoid meltdowns that could tank the entire global financial system. This is the type of "adult leadership" the US could previously be relied upon to provide and -- as no small compensation for incurring the headaches of BEING the adult in the room -- use to its unique advantages for American businesses and the American government itself.
That world is GONE. That level of faith in the United States will NEVER return.
The Future Costs of Current Incompetence
Given the players currently making decisions, it is pointless to attempt to develop estimates for specific types of costs stemming from this attack on Iran. Looking backward, recent overseas wars tended to cost $1 billion dollars per day in 2026 dollars during the missile and bombing phase, then slow to maybe $190 million to $250 million per day in the extended boots on the ground / car bomb phase of operations.
If the Iran war lasted 365 days with 20 days of "missile war" and the balance "boots on the ground" intensity, the "cost" might be $106 billion dollars. But that assumes a traditional trajectory where the US attempts to impose some sense of order on the ground, if only in an initial attempt to dictate who takes over. It cannot be assumed the Trump Administration feels any obligation to somehow secure basic government operation and public services for electricity, water, and sewer. The US may very well return its planes to the carriers, sail back to international waters and watch the fires burn from afar for the next few years. Active military costs could thus be very small compared to recent history.
Would that be a "win" for America? Hardly. Other indirect costs will more than make up for direct material costs avoided. If the current Iranian regime retains power, the US will have gained nothing while alienating its prior military and economic allies throughout the world, further limiting US trade prospects and reducing interest in participating in the US defense ecosystem. European nations are already declining to be purchasing partners with America and its defense firms on future weapons programs. Why? Partly because they see the future in Ukraine in leveraging far less expensive drone technology over billion dollar fighter jets and twelve billion dollar aircraft carriers. Partly because America has proven itself to be a highly irrational, unstable partner in intelligence, defense or economics.
If the current regime topples and is replaced by chaos, then the economies of nearly every neighboring country will be impacted for the duration of that uncertainty, likely causing energy and economic problems in Asia which will ripple back to the US as massive cost increases or product shortages. But Trump Administration officials seem clueless to the lessons from the supply chain shocks of COVID. If energy issues or military strife halts the supply of chips from China, Taiwan or South Korea, US manufacturing in nearly every sector will halt within DAYS, including manufacturing to replenish all of the weapons fired on Iran.
But... but... but.. but what if the Iranian regime is toppled and the people of Iran with help from the Kurds (remember the Kurds? The militiamen without a country the US has magically discovered each time we needed a local hero to provide local legitimacy to a hair-brained American military strategy in the Middle East?) manage to establish a democracy that makes it safe for entrepreneurs to wallpaper the country with Starbucks, Dollar General and payday lender locations like America?
There is ZERO chance of that happening. Iran has operated as a religious dictatorship since 1979 with no mechanisms in place allowing for multi-party government. Prior to 1979, it operated in a similar secret police mode for twenty six years (with the full support of the US) only without any claim to divinely inspired rule, just sheer will and brutality. There is ZERO social or cultural DNA within the country to support an instant conversion to modern democracy or whatever America thinks it operates domestically.
This so-called war of choice is just only one of a rash of choices made possible by the worst possible choice American voters could have made in 2024 electing Donald Trump as President and voting for Republican majorities in the House and Senate. There is zero chance that mistakes of this magnitude will stop until all of the forces permitting it are removed from power. Previously, it would be difficult imagining how things could get worse for Americans. There is zero difficulty in imagining it now. The possiblities are endless and completely unchecked.
WTH
