The Iranian drone and missile strike on Israel that took place on April 13, 2024 and information that has come out since the attack provides some evidence for a much different perspective on the future of Iranian influence in the region. The initial interpretation of the attack was that it demonstrated how much destabilization Iran could trigger in an already chaotic region, leading to more escalations of violence between Israel and seemingly everyone else and triggering more political and military strains in the United States. With only a few days hindsight, those concerns still hold weight but the logistics of the attack and defense hint at a different interpretation, one far more dangerous for Iran's fundamentalist leadership.
Accounts differ on quantities but estimates range from
* 100 drones, 130 ballistic missiles
to
* 170 drones, 120 ballistic missles, 30 cruise missiles
Initially, reports indicated that Israeli defenses shot down nearly everything and those that got through resulted in zero deaths and one injury of a young girl hit by shrapnel. That's IMPRESSIVE. A testament to the prowess of Israeli forces operating their Iron Dome defenses.
Well... Maybe not so much.
Reports as of April 15, two days later, indicate that the US alone shot down 70 drones and Jordan and European allies operating in the region shot down maybe 10 or 20 more drones and missiles before they ever reached Israeli airspace. The Wall Street Journal has quoted US officials stating that only half of the incoming drones and missiles were intercepted and the others failed in flight.
That's a much different story with significantly different implications, none of them good for Iran.
First, those statistics are evidence that American ship-based defense systems provide amazing capabilities at a distance. They also indicate the underlying design of those systems that provides a "command and control backplane" allowing data to be shared with partners increases their effectiveness even more. In effect, Iran's attempt to carry out this attack supplied a real-world demonstration that dollars spent on these defense systems was well spent. The attack was a military stragetic failure on Iran's part as well because rather than facing the fear Iran has hundreds / thousands of drones of unknown lethality and effectiveness, we now know Iran's state of drone technology is at best about 50% effective. Thanks for the extra lab data. We'd normally have to pay spies handsome sums to collect that kind of intelligence. Now we have it from the real world.
More importantly, the Iranian attack is a political strategic failure on the part of Iran's fundamentalist leadership. The drone and missile attack was launched as a response to Israel's bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damscus, Syria on April 1, 2024. That bombing was targeting an Iranian general and succeeded at killing him. With ANY other pair of countries, the act of BOMBING another country's EMBASSY in a THIRD country would be a Pearl Harbor level military and political event, likely triggering a war probably between all three countries. In this case however, not so much.
Iran has been funding terrorism against its Sunni Arab neighbors and the US since the inception of its current fundamentalist regime in 1979 but it knows there is some upper limit that cannot be exceeded without triggering its own destruction. Knowing EXACTLY where this limit is is crucial to Iran's fundamentalist leadership because this terrorism serves as a mechanism of Iran's leaders to distract Iranian citizens from Iran's failed domestic economy. As long as the fundamentalist leaders know there are are few more notches available on the Distracto-meter abroad, they can pull that lever when domestic politics appear to be threatening their grip on power.
Now think back to the period between the April 1 Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy and the April 13 attack by Iran on Israel. By Friday, April 12, the evening news in America was airing video footage of Iranian forces putting missiles into firing position. Even armchair military experts on YouTube hunkered down in their video bunkers were covering Iranian preparations for this attack in real time. That's not a sign of an attack from a country with unlimited lethality in store it can deploy to exact retribution for a blatant (and HUMILIATING) attack on its (virtual) territory. That's a sign of a country that recognizes a boundary it cannot afford to breach in its external affairs yet is facing intense domestic problems that DEMAND that it maintain the illusion of revolutionary zeal by counter-attacking.
When faced with that dilemma, Iran did EXACTLY what one would expect. Iran telegraphed for DAYS in advance that "something" would be done. Iran publicly referenced the types of weapons that would be used and numbers. Footage was shared internationally showing final preparations, helping to further narrow down the exact window of the attack. And while drones and missiles were still flying and probably half had already been shot down, Iran publicly stated through a tweet from its UN ambassador that the current attack would be the SOLE extent of Iran's response to Israel's embassy bombing, unless Israel responded to this attack.
Iran's response could be translated to something like this.
Israel bombed our embassy consulate in Syria to kill a Brigadier General in our Quds forces tied to our support for Hezbollah. Normally, bombing an embassy would be an indefensible act of war but the actions of that general have resulted in equally indefensible acts of terrorism against Israel. We know that. You win that round. And THAT was such a confrontation act, there's really nothing we can do as a counter-attack that wouldn't open a full-blown war. But we have have domestic political pressures that must be contained and those pressures require us to do SOMETHING so here's what we're gonna do. We're going to fire a bunch of slow moving drowns and some missiles that Israel has already proven they can shoot down with ease. We're gonna hint at the quantities. We're gonna hint at the date. We're telling you they are coming all the way from Iran, giving many minutes to track them to shoot them down. And this will be IT. We won't do any more, so just have some target practice while we yell Death to Israel and Death to America in some meetings to distract our own citizens from other realities.
Iran is still capable of generating chaos that can disrupt its immediate region and the world economy. However, this recent attack has taken on an air of political kabuki theatre. It reflects the inevitable result when a government begins to understand that modern drone and missile warfare cannot solve fundamental political and economic problems and secure the survival of a government that is failing domestically. While recognizing that limitation, those in power certainly will not relinquish that power voluntarily so they will continue to use whatever tools they have at their disposal to delay the inevitable as long as possible.
WTH
